Marcelo Mayer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+800)
There is fantastic value on backing Red Sox third baseman Marcelo Mayer to hit a home run at +800 . The 23-year-old flashed power in his brief MLB stint last year and his peripherals have been outstanding this season. While he hasn't hit a homer so far, he has two doubles and his hard-hit rate (57.1%) and barrel rate (28.6%) are elite. He also has the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown. Brown is a stud but that hard-throwing righty gave up 10 dingers in 14 home starts last year and Houston's relievers are vulnerable to the long ball.
HOU FirstFiveInnings -0.5 (-114)
The Astros clobbered the Red Sox 8-1 yesterday and have a significant pitching advantage today. Boston is starting Brayan Bello who was in the bottom 25th percentile in xERA (4.48) and xBA (.258) last year. Meanwhile, Houston's Hunter Brown was third in AL Cy Young voting after pitching to a 2.43 ERA with an OBA of .201. Brown made his season debut last week and fanned nine through 4 2/3 scoreless innings but walked four batters. Control wasn't an issue for Brown last year so expect him settle in and mow down batters tonight.
Among every team playing today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros. Sporting a 1.57 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Caleb Durbin has displayed good plate discipline, placing in the 86th percentile.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 78th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Among every team playing today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros. Ceddanne Rafaela is remarkably athletic, ranking in the 92nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.12 ft/sec since the start of last season.
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. The shallowest left field fences in the majors are found in Minute Maid Park. Among every team playing today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros. Based on Statcast metrics, Willson Contreras is in the 94th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .371.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Trevor Story is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game. Among every team playing today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros. Trevor Story's 91.4-mph average exit velocity is among the best in the league since the start of last season: 84th percentile. Ranking in the 92nd percentile of THE BAT X's Spray Score since the start of last season, Trevor Story demonstrated exceptional skill in hitting the ball to all fields - a key talent for achieving a high batting average.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Jarren Duran is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today. Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Brown today. Jarren Duran has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Among every team playing today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Loperfido in the 89th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability. Joey Loperfido is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-least fair ground in the league — generally good for long-balls. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Joey Loperfido will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Joey Loperfido will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 4th-best batter in the league. Yordan Alvarez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. Minute Maid Park has the 2nd-least fair ground in the league — generally good for long-balls. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Brayan Bello today... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split. Extreme groundball batters like Yordan Alvarez tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Carlos Correa is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup. Carlos Correa will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, Carlos Correa grades out in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .286. Placing in the 87th percentile, Carlos Correa sports a .326 BABIP since the start of last season.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Jose Altuve is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.3% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Altuve will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Jose Altuve ranks in the 82nd percentile with a 17.6° launch angle, which is one of the steepest angles in baseball.
Isaac Paredes is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (48% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Extreme groundball hitters like Isaac Paredes usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Isaac Paredes will hold that advantage today. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Isaac Paredes ranks in the 100th percentile with a 24.2° launch angle, which is one of the highest angles in the league.
As it relates to his BABIP skill, Roman Anthony is projected as the 7th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Roman Anthony is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Roman Anthony will have an advantage in today's matchup. Among every team playing today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros. Utilizing Statcast metrics, Roman Anthony is in the 94th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .371.
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an advantage in today's game. Among every team playing today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros. In the past week's worth of games, Wilyer Abreu has been performing exceptionally well at the plate with a wOBA of .642.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcelo Mayer in the 76th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Marcelo Mayer will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Brown today. Marcelo Mayer has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Among every team playing today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros.
When it comes to his batting average skill, Jeremy Pena is projected as the 16th-best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today. Jeremy Pena pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 78th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast data, Jeremy Pena grades out in the 81st percentile for offensive skills per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .347.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Yainer Diaz will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Using Statcast metrics, Yainer Diaz ranks in the 77th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .272.
Jake Meyers's batting average skill is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage today. Jake Meyers has put up a .280 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Grading out in the 98th percentile, Jake Meyers sports a .354 BABIP since the start of last season.
Among every team playing today, the 5th-worst infield defense belongs to the Houston Astros. Carlos Narvaez's 91.2-mph average exit velocity is among the best in baseball since the start of last season: 81st percentile.
The shallowest left field fences in the majors are found in Minute Maid Park. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage in today's game. Christian Walker's footspeed has gotten better this season. His 26.2 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.16 ft/sec now. Christian Walker's 12.3% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) ranks in the 81st percentile since the start of last season.
Cam Smith has gone over 0.5 in 2 of his last 5 games.
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