Welcome in to Friday Junior's MLB player props & best bets for June 25.
One pitcher is entirely unhittable right now, while the other is a prime target for a blowout. Tonight’s card centers around two massive pitching angles: backing the sheer dominance of Cristopher Sánchez and aggressively fading a fading Zac Gallen. Here is how we are exploiting the mismatch.
Let's dig in to my top MLB picks for Thursday.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Cristopher Sánchez |
Over 6.5 Strikeouts | +107 |
 Zac Gallen |
Under 3.5 Strikeouts | -103 |
| Zac Gallen |
Over 2.5 Earned Runs | -141 |
Strikeout prop: Cristopher Sanchez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+107)
Sure, the Washington Nationals have been one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball this season, but they have yet to face a pitcher of Cristopher Sánchez's caliber. On the year, Washington owns a 38.1% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching at home. Over their last 12 games against southpaws, that number still sits at 25%.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies' ace has been on an absolute tear, posting a 28.54% strikeout rate and 31.09% whiff rate this season. He draws a Nationals lineup that features five hitters striking out above the league average. Sánchez also enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box. In 47 elite-rated starts, he has recorded 6+ strikeouts 57.45% of the time and 7+ strikeouts 42.55% of the time.
Take this down to even money, but do not pay any juice.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NATS, NBCSP
Strikeout prop: Zac Gallen Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-103)
If you enjoy my write-ups, first off, thank you. Secondly, you are going to hear me mention Zac Gallen's name a lot today.
The Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander draws an offense that is not only on fire, but simply does not strike out. According to Batters-Box's current season dataset, the St. Louis Cardinals have zero hitters above the league-average strikeout rate.
They also have five hitters in their projected lineup with a strikeout rate of 15% or lower over their last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching. As a team, St. Louis owns just a 15.9% strikeout rate over its last 12 games.
On the other side, Gallen owns the lowest matchup strikeout rate on the board today, per Batters-Box. Over his last five starts, his strikeout rate has dipped below 10%.
I find it hard to envision him shoving here. He has struggled for much of the season, the Cardinals' bats have been scorching hot, and I expect that to continue.
Go for the Under.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, ARID
Earned Runs Prop: Zac Gallen Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-141)
One of the worst-rated pitchers on today's slate happens to be Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen, who brings a poorly rated matchup ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate to the table.
Away from home this season, Gallen owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while allowing 48% hard contact and an 11.5% barrel rate.
To make matters worse, he draws seven, yes, SEVEN elite-rated St. Louis Cardinals hitters, according to Batters-Box's current season ratings.
Over their last 12 games, the Cardinals have been squaring the ball up all over the yard, posting a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, .345 wOBA, and .151 ISO. With that many bats in a premium spot tonight, how could I not back the Cardinals against Gallen's noodle arm?
If you are not in the juice-paying business, the Cardinals First Five Team Total Over 2.5 is another great way to attack this matchup.
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CARD, ARID
- Prop picks: 239-440, -6.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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