Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal reached the Round of 16 by the finest of margins, and their reward is Monday’s showdown with a Spain team that’s shifting into top gear in the knockout rounds.
While there’s star power all over the pitch for these European neighbors, my Spain vs. Portugal predictions back the slick movement of Lamine Yamal and Co. as -110 favorites in Dallas.
Check out my World Cup picks and betting tips for this July 6 matchup.
Include bolded Team vs. Team predictions keyword and link to World Cup picks. Please link to World Cup odds and World Cup bracket throughout the article as well.
Spain vs Portugal predictions
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TOP PICK
Who will win Spain vs Portugal: Spain (-104)
After a slow start, Spain are humming, with Lamine Yamal inching closer to full fitness and Mikel Oyarzabal banging in the goals – and I’m picking Luis de la Fuente’s men to take care of business against a Portugal team they know well.
The Spaniards are unbeaten in their last 34 contests, and they enter the Round of 16 with four wins from their past five outings.
The midfield battleground is always a decisive factor against Portugal, but Rodri, Pedri and Dani Olmo can match the Vitinha-Joao Neves-Bruno Fernandes trio, and Spain will have an edge in the final third with their dynamic front three.
While Portugal labor on with Cristiano Ronaldo leading the line, the numbers confirm the lack of spark. Despite averaging 61% of the ball across their four outings at this World Cup, they’ve managed just 3.8 shots on target per game, which ranks below the likes of Uruguay and New Zealand.
Look for Spain to create the better chances at AT&T Stadium, exploiting some of Portugal’s defensive flaws that were on display in the second half against Croatia on Thursday, and I’d bet their moneyline up to -130.
COVERS INTEL: Spain are getting the job done with and without the ball, pairing dominant 68% possession and 91% pass accuracy with 0.9 xG conceded.
Spain vs Portugal Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (-103)
There’s plenty of familiarity here, with many of the main characters squaring off in European competitions, and I see that contributing to the Under on Monday.
A gritty Spain defense has yet to concede a goal at this World Cup, and one moment of magic at the other end of the pitch might be enough to book their ticket to the quarterfinals.
Portugal were stifled by DR Congo and Colombia during the group stage, and the debate rages on around whether Ronaldo is still the right man for the central striker role. Goncalo Ramos was the hero off the bench, and this Portuguese squad looks more menacing with a more mobile target.
A change there, of course, is highly unlikely.
The Under on 2.5 goals has been a winning ticket in four of the past five meetings between these powerhouses, and I’m expecting another low-scoring battle here, with both teams content to win the possession battle at the expense of a more direct style.
Spain vs Portugal projected lineup
Spain (4-2-3-1): Simón; Porro, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal
Portugal (4-2-3-1): Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Vitinha, Neves; Bernardo, Fernandes, Leão; Ronaldo
Spain vs Portugal injuries
Spain: Nico Williams LW (Doubtful), Yeremy Pino LW (Doubtful)
Portugal: None.
Spain vs Portugal weather
Dome.
Spain vs Portugal odds
 Spain |
 Portugal |
|
|---|---|---|
| -220 | Moneyline | +295 |
| +265 | Draw | +265 |
| Over 2.5 (-125) | Total | Under 2.5 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Spain vs Portugal
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Monday, July 6, 2026 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TV |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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