Monday’s MLB card is loaded with pitchers due to give up a lot of runs, with a handful of offenses stepping into strong matchups across the board.
Before locking in your MLB player props, here are my MLB picks for Monday, July 6.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Kevin Gausman |
Over 2.5 Earned Runs | +110 |
 Mike Burrows |
Under 16.5 Outs | -129 |
 Cristopher Sanchez |
Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -125 |
Kevin Gausman Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+110)
The San Francisco Giants offense has been on a tear over their last six games. Yes, that stretch came in Denver, but they now draw another vulnerable arm back at home. Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman has struggled over his last few outings.
In his last three starts, he owns a 9.00 ERA, 6.04 xERA, and a 2.14 WHIP. Over his last five, he has a 6.58 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.
According to Batters-Box current-season ratings, the Giants have six elite-rated hitters and one strongly rated bat, giving them the second-highest-rated offense on the slate.
I like Rafael Devers in this matchup, but with so many elite bats in play, I prefer to back the full-team approach. If he gets there, he is likely driving runs in as part of the bigger scoring picture.
At +110 for 3+ runs, it is a strong price. If anything, I would only play this down to even money at most.
- Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSBA, Sportsnet
Mike Burrows Under 16.5 Outs (-129)
There are multiple ways to attack Astros right-hander Mike Burrows this evening, including Over earned runs, the Nationals F5 team total Over, and the Under on his outs.
The Washington Nationals enter today with the third-highest-rated offense on Batters-Box’s current season ratings, featuring four elite-rated hitters and two strongly rated bats. In the current matchup ratings, Burrows grades poorly in ISO, hard-contact rate, strikeout rate, and ground-ball rate.
Over their last 12 games, the Nationals offense has been rolling, posting a 132 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .821 OPS, and .225 ISO.
In the season, they are the second-highest-scoring first-five-inning offense, averaging 3.11 runs per game. If they can get to Burrows early and often, his outing could be short.
With the options above, take the best value.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NATS, SCHN
Cristopher Sanchez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-125)
We know the Kansas City Royals are one of the toughest teams in baseball to strike out, but over their last few games their strikeout rate has ticked up, and against southpaws they have not fared well either.
Cristopher Sanchez to record 7+ strikeouts feels very doable. He enters with one of the highest pitcher ratings on the day over at Batters-Box. When graded as elite, he clears 6+ strikeouts 72.73% of the time and 7+ strikeouts 63.64% of the time. He has gone over this number in nine of his last ten elite-rated starts.
The Royals have five batters with strikeout rates of at least 23.3% in their last 30 at-bats against left-handed pitching. As a team over their last 12 games, their strikeout rate is hovering around 25.5%.
I will trust the trends and one of baseball's best pitchers to get it done. Play this up to -130.
- Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ROYL, NBCSP
- Prop picks: 267-509, -19.0 units |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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