Monday's MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball's biggest bats find themselves in favorable matchups.
Before locking in your MLB player props, here are my MLB picks I'm targeting to leave their mark tonight.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 James Wood |
+250 |
 Michael Harris |
+436 |
 Hunter Goodman |
+230 |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | +5875 |
Home run pick: James Wood (+250)
I think I am still out of breath from running to bet on this prop.
Washington Nationals star James Wood finds himself in the spot of all spots, as he draws Houston Astros right-hander Mike Burrows. Over his last 30 left-handed hitters faced, Burrows is allowing just a 17.4% ground ball rate.
Yes, that means hitters are elevating the baseball 82.6% of the time. During that span, they are also generating a 43.5% hard-hit rate and an 8.7% barrel rate, while posting a .589 xSLG and a .355 xwOBA.
Wood may only have a .208 BA over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, but he also owns a .500 SLG, .867 OPS, and .377 wOBA, while producing an 86.7% hard-hit rate and a 13.3% barrel rate.
Yeah, give me the nuke.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Space City Home Network
Home run pick: Michael Harris (+436)
We are backing dad strength in this one, Michael Harris to go yard against New York Mets starter Freddy Peralta.
The Atlanta Braves outfielder has been one of the few bright spots for Atlanta over the last month. The sparkplug is batting .268 with a .464 SLG and .781 OPS, while posting a 53.5% hard-hit rate and a 13.9% barrel rate in his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
Harris enters Monday with an elite rating on Batters-Box’s current season metrics, with nearly 90% arsenal coverage against Peralta. The right-hander also owns a poorly rated matchup in ISO, wOBA, and hard contact on Batters-Box.
On the road, Peralta is allowing 69.4% elevation and a 36.1% hard-hit rate to lefties. Those hitters have produced a .571 SLG and .384 wOBA, and over his last 60 faced, he is allowing a 2.84 HR/9 with a .497 xSLG.
The Braves are slowly turning it around, and with Harris leading the way, they can keep building toward the form they showed two months ago.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, SportsNet New York
Home run pick: Hunter Goodman (+230)
Tonight is the night, I think...
I am sitting on a Hunter Goodman over 27.5 home run ticket, and with 27 homers on the year, I think tonight is the night this future cashes.
The Colorado Rockies' All-Star draws left-hander Eric Lauer, who has allowed plenty of loud contact to right-handed hitters. At home this season, righties are elevating the ball nearly 78% of the time while producing a 36.7% hard-hit rate.
Over the last 30 right-handed batters he has faced, they own a .541 xSLG and .337 xwOBA with a 14.8% barrel rate.
Meanwhile, Goodman has crushed lefties over his last 60 plate appearances, posting a .630 SLG and 1.013 OPS while producing a 56% hard-hit rate and a 20.6% barrel rate.
Take it out of the park, Hunter!
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Sportsnet Los Angeles
- HR picks: 70-254, +8.6 units
Today’s HR parlay
| Hunter goodman |
Bet Now +5875 |
| James Wood |
|
| Michael Harris |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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