Monday's MLB card is loaded with star power, and a few of baseball's biggest bats find themselves in favorable matchups.
Before locking in your MLB player props, here are my MLB picks I'm targeting to leave their mark tonight.
Best MLB home run props today
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James Wood
Michael Harris
Home run pick: James Wood (+250)
I think I am still out of breath from running to bet on this prop.
Washington Nationals star James Wood finds himself in the spot of all spots, as he draws Houston Astros right-hander Mike Burrows. Over his last 30 left-handed hitters faced, Burrows is allowing just a 17.4% ground ball rate.
Yes, that means hitters are elevating the baseball 82.6% of the time. During that span, they are also generating a 43.5% hard-hit rate and an 8.7% barrel rate, while posting a .589 xSLG and a .355 xwOBA.
Wood may only have a .208 BA over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, but he also owns a .500 SLG, .867 OPS, and .377 wOBA, while producing an 86.7% hard-hit rate and a 13.3% barrel rate.
Yeah, give me the nuke.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Space City Home Network
Home run pick: Michael Harris (+436)
We are backing dad strength in this one, Michael Harris to go yard against New York Mets starter Freddy Peralta.
The Atlanta Braves outfielder has been one of the few bright spots for Atlanta over the last month. The sparkplug is batting .268 with a .464 SLG and .781 OPS, while posting a 53.5% hard-hit rate and a 13.9% barrel rate in his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
Harris enters Monday with an elite rating on Batters-Box’s current season metrics, with nearly 90% arsenal coverage against Peralta. The right-hander also owns a poorly rated matchup in ISO, wOBA, and hard contact on Batters-Box.
On the road, Peralta is allowing 69.4% elevation and a 36.1% hard-hit rate to lefties. Those hitters have produced a .571 SLG and .384 wOBA, and over his last 60 faced, he is allowing a 2.84 HR/9 with a .497 xSLG.
The Braves are slowly turning it around, and with Harris leading the way, they can keep building toward the form they showed two months ago.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVision, SportsNet New York
- HR picks: 70-254, +8.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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