The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets meet tonight in their season finale, with Atlanta looking to keep their offensive brilliance alive.
Against a vulnerable Freddy Peralta, my Mets vs. Braves predictions are targeting the hosts to take the rubber match.
Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, July 6.
Who will win Mets vs Braves today: Braves (-126)
The Atlanta Braves send Reynaldo Lopez to the mound tonight, and he's been quite reliable. The right-hander owns a 2.26 FIP over his last six outings. While just two of those were starts, he hasn't allowed a single home run during that span.
Lopez typically serves as an opener, tossing 3-4 innings, but the Braves' bullpen has been solid lately, posting a 3.92 xERA over the last week.
Meanwhile, the New York Mets send Freddy Peralta to the bump. The righty has a 5.08 FIP across his last five appearances, and he's allowed 1.54 HR/9 in the last month.
That's a dangerous statistic against a Braves offense that just scored 23 runs across the last two games of this series while carrying a .205 ISO over the last six games.
Atlanta will stay hot at the dish, while Lopez and the bullpen will keep the Mets at bay.
I'll play this pick up -140.
COVERS INTEL: The Braves have posted 121 wRC+ across the last seven days, compared to their season average of 98 wRC+.
Mets vs Braves Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 runs (+114)
The Mets may have scored 10 runs on Sunday, but they're still struggling offensively. NY has posted just 99 wRC+ over their last six contests while carrying a .179 ISO.
Lopez has limited opponents to a 32.9% hard-hit rate over the last month, and the Braves pen has allowed just a 38% hard-hit rate during that span.
This feels like a game where the Braves will do most of the scoring given their recent offensive consistency, but Atlanta's pitching can limit the Mets.
A 6-2, 5-3 scoreline feels possible.
I'll play this pick up to -110.
- ML/RL bets: 33-29, +2.97 units
- Over/Under bets: 34-27, +1.40 units
Mets vs Braves weather
Rain is possible at first pitch, with a 49 percent chance of precipitation at 7 p.m. ET before conditions clear up as the game progresses. Wind stays light all night, topping out around 4.7 mph, so it shouldn't meaningfully affect fly balls or scoring. The bigger factor is the early rain chance, which could cause a brief delay but is unlikely to impact the full game.
Mets vs Braves odds
- Moneyline: Mets +117 | Braves -122
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-170) | Braves -1.5 (+163)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-122) | Under 8.5 (+117)
Mets vs Braves trend
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 home games (+9.50 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
How to watch Mets vs Braves and game info
| Location | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Monday, July 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, BravesVision |
| Mets starting pitcher | Freddy Peralta (5-7, 4.82 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher | Reynaldo Lopez (4-1, 3.31 ERA) |
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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