The Tampa Bay Rays are short home favorites against the New York Yankees, but I’m taking the near-pick’em road side.
Griffin Jax’s contact profile gives New York a buy-low power matchup, while Cam Schlittler gives the Yankees an edge.
Here are my Yankees vs Rays predictions and MLB picks for July 6.
Who will win Yankees vs Rays today: Yankees Moneyline (-101)
I’m betting the New York Yankees for 2 units and would play them down to -135.
Cam Schlittler is coming off a rough start against the Detroit Tigers, and New York is in its worst stretch of the season, but this price has overcorrected.
My projection is well off the market (around -150), and Tampa Bay Rays starter Griffin Jax gives the Yankees the right rebound matchup. Jax has allowed a 10.7% barrel rate and .483 xSLG, while New York still owns a 9.9% team barrel rate.
With Schlittler’s starter edge, I’m buying the dip.
COVERS INTEL: Jax’s 5.37 expected ERA is the hidden concern. His 3.45 ERA looks playable, but it's a screaming signal for overdue regression.
Yankees vs Rays Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+105)
I’m playing the Over because this number is low enough to buy a Yankees offensive rebound against the right starter. Jax's barrel rate is a problem against an offense that still ranks in the top three of the sport in barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
This enables at least one crooked number inning, and that may be all you need.
Schlittler is the better arm, but asking the Rays to score around 3 runs isn't out of reach. I'd play this down to -130, with an 8.2-run projection.
- ML/RL bets: 34-32, +3.77 units
- Over/Under bets: 41-27, +18.40 units
Yankees vs Rays weather
Excessive heat with a chance of showers is expected in the Tampa Bay area tonight.
Yankees vs Rays odds
- Moneyline: Yankees +100 | Rays -120
- Run line: Yankees +1.5 | Rays -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Yankees vs Rays trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 away games (+3.70 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays.
How to watch Yankees vs Rays and game info
| Location | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date | Monday, July 6, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, Rays.TV |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Cam Schlittler (8-5, 2.08 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher | Griffin Jax (4-5, 3.45 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rays latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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