England vs Netherlands Odds, Picks & Predictions: Dutch Defeated in Euro Semifinal

The Netherlands have proven that they're not among the elite teams in this year's Euro tournament, and the cream should rise to the top sooner or later with England prevailing, per our soccer betting picks.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Jul 9, 2024 • 16:28 ET • 4 min read
Luke Shaw England Euro 2024
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

This Wednesday we’ll find out the name of the other Euro 2024 finalist with the Netherlands vs. England semifinal taking place in Dortmund. 

The Dutch have impressed so far but face an England squad packed with talent. Can they maintain their good form or will England’s pragmatic play stop them? 

Get stuck into my England vs. Netherlands predictions and Euro 2024 picks for July 10.

England vs Netherlands picks, predictions, and betting tips

My best bet:
England to qualify (-133 at Betano)

My analysis

The Netherlands finished third in their group but that doesn’t do the quality of their performances enough credit. They were unlucky to draw 0-0 with France with a controversial goal ruled out and they also looked impressive while losing 3-2 to Austria. Since then they’ve beaten Romania and Turkey to reach this stage, but will they be able to go one step further and reach the final?

Before Dutch fans book their transport to Berlin, their team needs to get past England. Gareth Southgate’s team won Group C in unspectacular style with one win, two draws, and just two goals scored. They’ve taken that poor form into the knockout rounds with a miraculous Jude Bellingham goal in extra time helping them reach the quarterfinals before beating Switzerland on penalties. 

As bad as England have been to watch, there’s a feeling that this could be their year. They were the favorites to win the tournament before a ball was kicked and they’re finding a way to win even if that involves their stars having to bail them out and a healthy dose of luck. These are the margins that can help teams win tournaments, which is why I’m betting England to qualify from this game at -133.

England’s first half against the Swiss was their best of the tournament so far and they demonstrated a level of control that we hadn’t seen until this point. We also saw Luke Shaw come off the bench for his first appearance in Germany following an injury. Despite playing as the left central defender, rather than the left-wing back, he instantly added a balance and gave the team the left foot that they need. 

Gareth Southgate took too long to make subs, again, but when he did the team instantly looked more dynamic. When this team is playing well they are genuinely scary and their ability to keep going in the face of adversity is impressive. Even more so is their ability from the penalty spot, with the team turning English stereotypes on their head as they dispatched Switzerland with one of the best five penalties seen over the last decade. No team will want to go to a shootout against this England team. 

The Dutch are a good, not great, team and England’s quality should come through and secure them a spot in Berlin. That might be in regular time, extra time, or penalties, and however it happens I’ll be covered with England to qualify at -133.

Harry Kane odds, prop for today

My best bet
Anytime goal (+175 at Betano)

My analysis
It hasn't quite been the explosive tournament most expected from Harry Kane, but the strike has two key goals so far, and he'll need to be at his very best if England are to have any chance at booking their spot in Sunday's final. 

Kane will lead the line against a Dutch side that has been leaky at times throughout the tournament, and with both teams expected to score in a higher-scoring game, Kane at +175 is too juicy to pass up. 

England vs Netherlands same-game parlay (SGP)

England to qualify

Both teams to score

England Over 11.5 shots

In addition to my best bet I’m going to add two further legs, starting with Both Teams to Score. 

We’ve seen England give up a goal in both knockout games so far with both Slovakia and Switzerland scoring past them. The defense is improving but it still doesn’t look impenetrable, and the Dutch will hope to take advantage of that with the pace and guile of Xavi Simons and Cody Gakpo.

I’ll also back England to have Over 11.5 shots. Through five games they’ve averaged 11.6 shots per game. However, this is the first team that they’ll play who are going to take the game to England, with their five opponents so far happy to sit back. 

England are set up in a way to make sure that they can damage teams who throw too many players forward and will punish them. We should see a far more open game than any England have played so far, which means we’ll get 12 or more shots from the Three Lions.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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England vs Netherlands odds

England Netherlands
+165 Moneyline +235
Over 2.5 (+155) Total Under 2.5 (-192)
+185 Draw +185

Odds courtesy of Betano on 7-8.

England vs Netherlands game info

Location: BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund, Germany
Date: Wednesday, 7-10-2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
Weather: 77F, 10 mph winds, 20% PoP

Not intended for use in MA.
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