EURO 2024 Picks

The Netherlands finished second in Group B, behind France, the only team that beat them in the qualifiers. France put six goals past the Dutch over two games. In the remaining six preliminary round clashes, the Netherlands only conceded one more goal, in Dublin, against Ireland. But that's it! Solid as a rock, with Liverpool's Virgil Van Dijk, Man City's Nathan Ake, and Bayern Munich's Matthijs de Ligt guaranteeing massive quality at the back.

If we look at Denmark's recent form, there's nothing that jumps off the page. They skated by Euro qualifying capturing 22 points out of a possible 30 against the likes of Finland, Kazakhstan, Northern Ireland, and San Marino. They did however face Slovenia twice as they were in the same group, and those games ended 1-1 and 2-1 in favor of Slovenia. Given the familiarity between the two sides, it's hard to imagine either team breaking out offensively. Slovenia have very little by way of offensive star power, relying on 21-year-old Benjamin Sesko to do the bulk of the scoring. While Denmark will rely on Rasmus Hojlund to lead the line, in what is a very unproven starting XI. 

It's irrelevant to really consider friendlies as players are more concerned about their fitness rather than the result — so let’s look at the qualifying campaign for England. They went unbeaten and tended to start games quickly, winning at the interval in five of eight outings. It’s worth noting England failed to play their best starting lineup in either of the warmup games to this tournament, meaning the team we see on Sunday should be stronger and ready to take the game to Serbia from the start.

Even though they only won once in 16 games at the Euros (3-2 vs. England at Euro 2000), Romania comes to Germany unbeaten in 12 competitive matches (seven wins, five draws), and they have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five official clashes. Ukraine have won only two of their last nine Euro 2020 group matches (2-7 SU) and have not kept a clean sheet in their previous 11 Euro games. Had it not been for the Nations League path, Ukraine wouldn't be at this tournament. The Ukrainians found it tough to beat Bosnia and Herzegovina (2-1) and then Iceland (2-1), coming from one behind in both games to win the playoffs in March.

With an aging core and the lingering memory of a disastrous performance at the 2022 World Cup, Belgium are in the unusual position of flying somewhat under the radar at this tournament — and I see Group E giving the Red Devils a helpful launchpad to emerge as a contender. The first step is taking care of business against Slovakia. Belgium have collected 10 wins and four draws since flopping in Qatar, and I see their tournament experience being a trump card in this first outing. Since there isn’t a ton of value in the moneyline for Domenico Tedesco’s men at such a short price, I’m pivoting to this halftime/full-time market.

Ralf Rangnick was much maligned at Manchester United, but he’s done wonders with Austria. They follow the Rangnick playbooks by pressing very high and playing the ball quickly. His style has been adopted by the players in a way it wasn’t at Man Utd, and they’ve benefitted from that. Austria will work hard, they’re well-drilled, and they have the ability to frustrate a French team that might not start the tournament as quickly as many think. It likely won’t be enough to get anything from the match, but Austria can keep the score low.

Turkey enters this opening match in poor form — going winless over their last five fixtures in all competitions — and their scoring has taken a massive hit, with just three goals scored over that span. Kenan Yildiz will be relied upon to lead the line, but he's largely unproven on the international scene at just 19 years old. Vincenzo Montella will have his tactics set up in a way that Turkey does not get burned on the counter, and because of that possession-based style of play, the slow burn of the clock will be in our favor as we hold an Under ticket. As for Georgia, this is a team making its debut at a major international tournament, and while many consider them a bit of a dark horse in the group, they'll have to find a way to win low-scoring fixtures. Georgia play a 3-5-2 formation that essentially turns into five at the back when out of possession.