European commitments, short turnarounds and a couple of bruising midweek cup results add another layer to this weekend’s Premier League slate.
Chelsea and Manchester United open the weekend, while Liverpool host Arsenal in the standout showdown. I’m also taking a closer look at two evenly matched fixtures where a draw could be worth backing.
My Premier League moneyline predictions and free betting picks cover all 10 matches, weighing recent form, home advantage and midweek workload against Kalshi’s three-way prices.
Premier League moneyline picks for Matchweek 9
| Match | Pick |
|---|---|
 Chelsea Manchester United |
53% |
 Bournemouth Leeds United |
46% |
 Brentford Nottingham Forest |
48% |
 Coventry City Sunderland |
Draw 29% |
 Hull City Ipswich Town |
Draw 29% |
 Manchester City Brighton |
59% |
 Tottenham Crystal Palace |
64% |
 Aston Villa Fulham |
48% |
 Liverpool Arsenal |
41% |
 Newcastle United Everton |
42% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Premier League moneyline picks for Matchweek 9
Chelsea vs Manchester United pick: Chelsea
Chelsea have had a rough week, losing to Tottenham before going the distance with Liverpool in the cup. But Manchester United arrive in worse shape after conceding seven goals across defeats to Como and Bournemouth.
Chelsea’s turnaround is a concern, yet United’s shaky defending makes the hosts the more trustworthy side at Stamford Bridge.
Bournemouth vs Leeds United pick: Bournemouth
Bournemouth have scored six unanswered goals in wins over Manchester United and Aston Villa, giving them some genuine momentum.
Leeds have been steadier over the season and had no midweek cup game, so freshness favors the visitors.
Still, Bournemouth’s improving attack and home advantage are enough for me to take the hosts at 46%.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest pick: Brentford
Brentford have been the stronger attacking side this season, even if a draw with Hull and cup defeat to Sunderland have cooled things down.
Forest have extra rest and will see an opportunity against tired legs. But their own lack of goals makes them difficult to trust away from home. I’ll stick with Brentford.
Coventry City vs Sunderland pick: Draw
Neither Coventry nor Sunderland has offered much reason for confidence in the league.
Sunderland’s midweek cup win over Brentford might lift spirits, but it also means less recovery time than Coventry have enjoyed.
The visitors look too short at 42% given their league form, while Coventry remain difficult to trust. A 1-1 draw appeals more.
Hull City vs Ipswich Town pick: Draw
Hull and Ipswich both have 10 points after eight matches, and each drew 1-1 last weekend. The hosts have home advantage, while Ipswich have an extra day of recovery.
Neither has a clear edge in form or scheduling, which makes picking a winner feel forced. I’d rather take the draw at 29% in this evenly priced matchup.
Manchester City vs Brighton pick: Manchester City
City’s perfect league start ended at Aston Villa, but they remain the stronger side at home. Brighton have been excellent going forward and are capable of troubling City’s defense.
The teams also needed penalties to separate them in Wednesday’s cup meeting, so neither has a major rest edge. City’s deeper squad and home advantage tip the scales.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace pick: Tottenham
Tottenham have finally found some form, following their win over Coventry with a 2-0 victory at Chelsea. Palace have struggled badly in the league, losing their last two by a combined 7-0, and played Fulham in the cup on Wednesday.
Spurs have more rest and better momentum. The 64% price is steep, but they’re still my pick.
Aston Villa vs Fulham pick: Aston Villa
Aston Villa beat Manchester City last weekend, then came crashing back down with a 3-0 cup defeat at Bournemouth.
Fulham have won two straight league games by 1-0 scores, but their attack remains limited.
Both sides had midweek cup duties, so neither gets a big rest advantage. Villa’s higher attacking ceiling at home gets my vote.
Liverpool vs Arsenal pick: Arsenal
Arsenal have won seven of eight league games, while Liverpool continue to give opponents chances despite winning their last two.
Both clubs needed penalties in midweek cup ties, though Arsenal played a day earlier.
Anfield is a difficult place to visit, but the Gunners have been more reliable week to week. I like Arsenal at 41%.
Newcastle United vs Everton pick: Newcastle United
Everton ended their scoring drought emphatically on Thursday, beating Newcastle 3-1 in the League Cup behind goals from James Garner, Hayden Hackney, and Thierno Barry.
That result makes backing Newcastle less comfortable, but Monday's rematch shifts to St. James' Park, where the Magpies will be looking for revenge.
Newcastle's home advantage keeps me on the hosts at 42%, although Everton's confidence makes this a much tougher call.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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