The penultimate weekend of the final calendar-year MLS season is upon us, and it's win-or-bust for quite a few clubs as we approach next weekend's Decision Day.
Matchday 34 brings plenty of desperate sides hoping to stay alive, but it also features a few matchups where teams look to maintain any possible home advantage. That includes the weekend's headliner: the New England Revolution host Lionel Messi and Inter Miami.
Here are our MLS moneyline predictions and free betting picks for Matchday 34!
MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 34
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
 Charlotte FC vs.  Orlando City SC |
Draw 22% |
 FC Cincinnati vs.  Philadelphia Union |
Draw 24% |
 Columbus Crew vs.  D.C. United |
Columbus Crew 73% |
 New York City FC vs.  CF Montreal |
New York City FC 68% |
 Sporting Kansas City vs.  FC Dallas |
FC Dallas 53% |
 St. Louis City SC vs.  San Diego FC |
Draw 21% |
 LA Galaxy vs.  Austin FC |
LA Galaxy 66% |
 San Jose Earthquakes vs.  Real Salt Lake |
Real Salt Lake 37% |
 Colorado Rapids vs.  Chicago Fire |
Draw 26% |
 Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs.  Seattle Sounders FC |
Draw 21% |
 Nashville SC vs. New York Red Bulls |
Nashville SC 66% |
 Atlanta United FC vs.  Toronto FC |
Toronto FC 33% |
 New England Revolution vs.  Inter Miami CF |
Draw 23% |
 LAFC vs.  Minnesota United FC |
Draw 24% |
 Portland Timbers vs.  Houston Dynamo |
Portland Timbers 54% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert MLS moneyline picks
Charlotte vs. Orlando City pick: Draw
Orlando are finishing the season on a strong note, unbeaten in five as Antoine Griezmann continues to punish defenses. However, three of those results have been draws. Factor in Charlotte's uneven late-season form, and the fact the last four meetings between these sides have ended all square, and I like another stalemate on the road for the Lions as they hold onto a playoff position.
FC Cincinnati vs. Philadelphia Union pick: Draw
Cincinnati's two late goals nearly earned them three vital points against Inter Miami, but they conceded in the 90th minute and settled for a draw. I'm expecting the same result against Philly, who will again be without Cavan Sullivan and are stumbling down the stretch with just two points from their last three matches.
Columbus Crew vs. DC United pick: Columbus
I'm backing the Crew to win, but this is a no-play at this probability. DC United have now lost four on the trot and have just four points from their last nine matches, while the Crew has won four straight in the league and six of their last seven. They sit in the final playoff position and are far more motivated than the visitors, who have officially been eliminated from the playoffs.
New York City FC vs. CF Montreal pick: New York City
This is our other no-play pick for the weekend's slate. That's not because I think Montreal will do anything in this match—they come in after putting one shot on target in a 4-0 loss to Charlotte, haven't won in seven away matches, and have just two goals and two points in their last five. The problem is that I don't trust this NYCFC side enough to win at 68% probability, given they haven't kept a clean sheet in seven matches and have scored just eight goals in that span. They also needed a 95th-minute goal to beat Atlanta on Wednesday, keeping their very slim playoff hopes alive.
Sporting Kansas City vs. FC Dallas pick: Dallas
I'd like this pick a lot more if I could trade it under 50%, but Dallas should win on the road despite their recent inconsistency. Sporting KC has now lost four straight after showing some life in September, and has conceded 15 goals in its last five matches. Dallas has beaten Sporting in four straight matchups, and Petar Musa leads an attack that has scored 29 goals on the road—the most in the Western Conference.
St. Louis CITY SC vs. San Diego FC: Draw
San Diego's playoff hopes came off life support when they lost 4-1 to Vancouver on Wednesday, extending their winless streak to 10 matches as they have imploded down the stretch. But they've pulled out a draw in five of their last seven outings, and are facing a St. Louis side missing key players to injury and riding a three-match losing skid in the league. For me, that makes the 21% for a draw feel like terrific value.
LA Galaxy vs. Austin FC pick: LA Galaxy
I'm not terribly thrilled to trade the Galaxy to win at 66%, and I likely wouldn't trade it past 67%. That said, it's the right call here. Austin's officially out of the playoffs after losing four of their last five, after a six-match unbeaten run gave them some fleeting hope. They now face a Galaxy side that sits just one point back of the play-in spots, and has beaten Austin in four of the last five visits to the City of Angels.
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Real Salt Lake pick: Real Salt Lake
The visitors are trading just four cents behind the hosts for a reason. San Jose had Timo Werner sent off in the 2-2 draw with Colorado on Wednesday. The draw leaves them with just four points and zero wins in their last five matches, shorthanded against an RSL side that has surged down the stretch. Three wins on the bounce have RSL in the final play-in spot in the West, and I'm backing them to stay hot in an almost must-win situation.
Colorado Rapids vs. Chicago Fire pick: Draw
Colorado has been so tough to beat at home, but they have drawn in three of their last four at DSG Park. Kosi Thompson's suspension for his red card against San Jose is a big loss, and I'm backing them to draw for the sixth time in their last eight against a Chicago side with just four points from four matches, playing at altitude on short rest.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Seattle Sounders pick: Draw
Vancouver has already clinched the 2026 edition of the Cascadia Cup, but they come into this match with several injuries and are likely to rotate a bit given their four-point lead atop the Western Conference. Seattle is holding onto a play-in spot, and a point on the road would be very welcome given they've picked up just two in their last four matches.
Nashville SC vs. New York Red Bulls pick: Nashville
Nashville have won 14 of their last 16 home matches and lost none. The hosts have allowed just four goals during their current eight-match unbeaten run and will be rested after heavily rotating in Wednesday's 0-0 draw with Philly. The Red Bulls have lost three of four and now sit two points outside a playoff spot, and their desperation to win will leave them vulnerable at the back against the dangerous Nashville attack.
Atlanta United vs. Toronto FC pick: Toronto
I'm a big fan of Toronto at this price, given the circumstances. Atlanta keep fighting despite being eliminated from the playoffs, but their last capitulation to NYCFC leaves them with four defeats in their last five. Toronto sits just two points back of Columbus for the final play-in spot, putting them in a nearly win-or-stay-home spot. I'll back them to continue a late-season charge that has seen them claim 10 of a possible 15 points down the stretch.
New England Revolution vs. Inter Miami CF pick: Draw
The match of the weekend sees the red-hot Revs riding a four-match winning streak as they sit two points clear of the visitors for second place in the Eastern Conference. Only Nashville has claimed more home points in the conference than New England, while Inter Miami's 30 away points pace the league. Miami's taken just one point from their last two matches, but they're unbeaten in five against the Revs, and they'll want to push for a win to flip their position in the table. This should be entertaining to the end, with each team claiming a point.
LAFC vs. Minnesota United FC pick: Draw
Every time I count Minnesota out, they get back up off the mat. The Loons still have an outside shot at the playoffs, sitting four points back after picking up nine points from a five-match unbeaten run. LAFC are unbeaten in four, drawing three of those after a comeback in El Trafico at the weekend. LAFC have drawn in six of their last 10 at home, and with Minnesota likely being on the front foot out of desperation I expect this one will be tense to the end with the Loons falling just short of a win.
Portland Timbers vs. Houston Dynamo: Portland
Houston comes into this match with four draws and a win in their last five, and has kept eight clean sheets in their last 16 matches. The Timbers will breach that defense, having scored 34 goals in 16 home fixtures and picking up two straight wins to keep their playoff hopes alive. Victory here is almost required to stay in contention, and I'm backing Portland to do just that for the eighth time in Houston's last 11 visits to Providence Park.
- Moneyline picks: 161-234, +1.69 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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