The NHL playoffs continue tonight as the Colorado Avalanche host the Dallas Stars in Game 4 of this second-round series.
My Stars vs. Avalanche prediction expects Dallas to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series and push the Avs to the brink of elimination. Read more in my NHL picks ahead for this May 13 tilt.
Stars vs Avalanche prediction
My best bet
Stars moneyline (+117 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
This is a series the Dallas Stars could be up 3-0. They went up 3-0 in Game 1 before folding like a napkin over the second half of the contest, which made me concerned for this group's mindset moving forward after such a demoralizing loss on home ice.
How did they respond? With two straight multi-goal victories, and now Dallas has the chance to go up 3-1 before heading back home for Game 5. There are a couple of reasons why I expect the Stars to do just that. First, they possess the goaltending advantage between Jake Oettinger and Alexandar Georgiev.
Oettinger has allowed two or fewer goals in six of his past eight starts, posting a 6-2 record with a commanding .931 SV% and 1.90 GAA. Meanwhile, Georgiev possesses a mere .888 SV% over the same stretch.
While Oettinger is better, he also has the benefit of playing behind the better blue line. Among the 16 playoff teams this postseason, Dallas ranks third in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5. Colorado ranks seventh in the same category. There are two advantages that the Avalanche possess in this game: offense and home-ice.
However, I believe the difference in offensive efficiency is neutralized when you look at the gap between these two team's defense and goaltending. That leaves home ice — which is a true advantage — but the Stars shook off that same advantage in Game 3 with a convincing 4-1 victory.
Stars vs Avalanche same-game parlay (SGP)
Stars moneyline
Tyler Seguin anytime goalscorer
Tyler Seguin has scored three times over the past two games in this series, and we should not be shocked that positive regression is finally starting to hit for the veteran forward. Despite ranking second on the team in scoring chances this postseason, Seguin had been held off the goal sheet in every playoff game until the past two.
He has now scored 10 times over the past seven meetings between these two teams, so I'm riding the hot hand.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Stars vs Avalanche odds
Stars vs Avalanche live odds
Stars vs Avalanche opening odds
- Puck line: Dallas +115 | Colorado -130
- Moneyline: Dallas +1.5 (-216) | Colorado (+187)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-105) | Under (-109)
Stars vs Avalanche moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Colorado opened as a slight –113 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- I think the market will move this line in Dallas’ direction, given all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at 6.5 and also remains at that price.
- I think the public will lean towards the Over, as it typically does in most Avalanche games.
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Stars vs Avalanche trend
Dallas has won six of its past eight games. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Avalanche.
Stars vs Avalanche game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Monday, 5-13-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Stars vs Avalanche latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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