Just two games are on the schedule tonight across the league, but I've still pinpointed three great NHL player props to target; among them is Tage Thompson continuing to fire away against a susceptible Flyers defense.
Matthew Tkachuk and Matvei Michkov also highlight today's top NHL picks for Wednesday, Oct. 21 below.
Today's best NHL player prop picks
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Matthew Tkachuk Over 0.5 assists |
49% |
 Tage Thompson Over 3.5 shots |
45% |
 Matvei Michkov anytime goal scorer |
29% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Novig today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Novig promo code 'COVERS' and deposit $10 to get $50 in trade credits!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Prop pick #1: Matthew Tkachuk Over 0.5 assists
Play up to 55%.
Matthew Tkachuk had a slow start to the campaign, but he's come alive. The veteran has notched an impressive 10 helpers in his last four contests, and he already has 11 assists in just nine appearances this season.
Tkachuk just set up three goals in the Florida Panthers' win over the Kraken a few days ago, and the Cats have generated 17.51 xG with him on the ice this season. That's a team-best mark.
The 28-year-old also leads the team in on-ice scoring chances and high-danger chances, while seven of his 11 assists have come on the power play. For what it's worth, Tkachuk had three helpers in his lone meeting with the Senators last season.
- Matchup: Panthers vs. Senators
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, Ontario
- TV: ESPN+
Prop pick #2: Tage Thompson Over 3.5 SOG
Play up to 50%.
Tage Thompson ranks third in the NHL with 4.67 SOG per game. The Buffalo Sabres star has cashed the Over in back-to-back outings, firing an impressive 11 shots on target during that span.
He'll face the Flyers tonight, who rank 31st in the NHL in SOG allowed and give up 6.7 SOG per night to centers.
Thompson also leads the Sabres in shot attempts (56) and unblocked shot attempts (37). His willingness to fire the puck consistently gives him multiple opportunities to clear this line, especially against a Philadelphia defense struggling to suppress shot volume.
With the matchup heavily favoring his shooting tendencies, I'm backing Thompson to register at least four shots again.
- Matchup: Flyers vs. Sabres
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, N.Y.
- TV: ESPN+
Goal scorer pick: Matvei Michkov
Play up to 35%.
A week ago, I wouldn't have been targeting any player on the Philadelphia Flyers, as they sat winless, but Philly has found a rhythm, winning two straight, with Matvei Michkov playing a crucial part. The winger has now scored in three straight games, including a pair against Colorado on October 19.
Michkov's six goals in 11 games lead the Flyers, and he's also second on the team in individual scoring chances and tied for first in individual high-danger chances.
I also like this matchup. The Sabres rank 26th in goals allowed per game and 30th on the penalty kill (64.5%). Michkov has scored on the power play in consecutive games, giving him another path to finding the net with PP1 opportunities.
And while I don't put much weight on head-to-head numbers, Michkov has four goals in six career meetings with Buffalo.
- Matchup: Flyers vs. Sabres
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, N.Y.
- TV: ESPN+
- Prop picks: 11-16, -1.78 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
