Brady Tkachuk returns to Ottawa tonight, setting the stage for a hostile atmosphere as the Senators host the Florida Panthers.
I'm targeting three NHL predictions built around favorable matchups, heavy ice time, and power-play opportunities, with Seth Jones offering assist value and Noah Ostlund presenting upside in Buffalo's top-six role.
Here are my best NHL picks and player props for tonight's slate.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Noah Ostlund Over 0.5 points
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Pick #1: Noah Ostlund Over 0.5 points
Oddsmakers have yet to adjust Noah Ostlund's point props. His probability should be higher than 53%, as he's centering the Buffalo Sabres' top line and PP1 against a Philadelphia Flyers team ranked 27th in expected goals allowed/60.
The Jack Quinn, Zach Benson, and Ostlund line is logging the most minutes for Buffalo and owns the team's best goal percentage and expected goal percentage. Ostlund is playing over 20 minutes per game right now, including 5+ minutes on the top power-play unit.
The Flyers might be riding a two-game winning streak, but they're missing a ton of bodies and are arguably the worst team in hockey. That vulnerability makes Ostlund's point prop particularly appealing when evaluating Flyers vs. Sabres predictions, especially given his top-line and PP1 usage. Buffalo should also have Rasmus Dahlin back tonight, which only strengthens the offense and PP1.
- Matchup: Flyers vs. Sabres
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: KeyBank Arena, Buffalo, NY
- TV: TNT
Pick #2: Panthers moneyline
This is a game built for the Florida Panthers. Brady Tkachuk's return will make things loud in Kanata tonight, but Florida and its cast of villains thrive in that environment. The Panthers are also the hottest team in hockey, with four hat tricks over their last three games. The Senators, on the other hand, are coming off a 3-1 loss to the lowly Flyers.
Ottawa will get Jake Sanderson back, but he's played just five minutes all season, and the loss of Thomas Chabot, who was logging 28 minutes a night, is massive in this matchup.
The Senators have also blended their lines and, in my opinion, diluted their offense. The one thing that could save the home team in a physical game — which isn't exactly Ottawa's M.O. — is Linus Ullmark. However, he's playing more than usual, and a dud is coming sooner or later.
The market loves the Senators, which explains this price, but I have Ottawa priced as a 48% home underdog. Florida's physical edge and Ottawa's depleted defense make the Panthers moneyline stand out when evaluating tonight's Panthers vs. Senators predictions.
- Matchup: Panthers vs. Senators
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Canadian Tire Center, Kanata, ON
- TV: Prime
Pick #3: Seth Jones Over 0.5 assists
This game should create plenty of power-play opportunities and 4-on-4 chances, with both teams ranking among the league leaders in PP time on ice. Seth Jones is going to have plenty of opportunities to pick up an assist today. He's already totaled nine apples over his last four games, with five coming on the man advantage.
Jones is eating minutes, averaging 25:31 in ice time per game, which ranks 14th in the league. With that kind of usage, he should be priced closer to even money for an assist today and around 59% for a point.
This is a matchup that suits the Panthers much more than the Ottawa Senators.
- Matchup: Panthers vs. Senators
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Canadian Tire Center, Kanata, ON
- TV: Prime
- Top picks: 23-22, +7.55 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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