Oilers vs Panthers Picks & Predictions: Early Lean on Bobrovsky Bouncing Back

Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final goes on Tuesday and given the way Game 4 went, our NHL expert Neil Parker believes Sergei Bobrovsky is primed for a bounce-back as Edmonton continues to pepper him with shots.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Jun 17, 2024 • 13:20 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Sergei Bobrovsky Florida Panthers NHL
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The Edmonton Oilers showed up in a big way in Game 4, which means the Stanley Cup Final returns to Sunrise for Game 5 on Tuesday with the Florida Panthers still holding a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Oilers superstar Connor McDavid made history with his 32nd assist of the playoffs to top the prior single-postseason high of 31 set by Wayne Gretzky during Edmonton’s 1988 Cup run. So, are we in store for another win from McDavid and the Oil, or will the Panthers turn in another defensive clinic on home ice and win it all on Tuesday?

Here are our free NHL picks and Oilers vs. Panthers predictions for Tuesday’s Game 5.

Oilers vs Panthers prediction

My best bet
Sergei Bobrovsky Over 25.5 saves (-105 at Sports Interaction)

My analysis

The Edmonton Oilers have 32 or more shots in three of the first four games of the series, and I’m anticipating them to continue peppering Florida Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky in Game 5. Edmonton has won the overall shot share (54.0%) in the series, while the five-on-five possession has been almost even with the Oilers sporting a 49.4 Corsi For percentage. 

Still, I’m most interested in Bobrovsky rebounding in top form following tough outings during the playoffs. He’s allowed four or more goals three times and rebounded with just four goals allowed and a .943 save percentage across the following three starts.

Edmonton has 12 lineup regulars with a 50% or higher shot share at 5-on-5 for the series, and the Oilers have converted a sustainable 48.4% of their attempts into shots. For comparison, they were at 51.5% during the regular season and 46.4% through the first three rounds of the playoffs.

Simply put, Florida hasn’t been able to suppress Edmonton’s shot volume in three of the four games, and the Cats have needed to rely on Bobrovsky. With the season on the line, I’m anticipating the Oilers prioritizing putting pucks on net and testing Bobrovsky early and often, especially considering Bobrovsky was pulled in Game 4.

Oilers vs Panthers star player prop

My best bet
Sergei Bobrovsky to record 30+ saves (+230 at Sports Interaction)

This is a ladder approach to my best bet, and Bobrovsky has made 30-plus saves twice in this series. Again, Florida hasn’t had the answer to slow down the Edmonton offense generating shots, and I’m expecting a bounce-back showing from Bobrovsky after allowing eight goals with a .843 save percentage in Games 3 and 4 on the road.

He turned away 50 of 51 at Amerant Bank Arena through the first two games of the final, and he’s been better on home ice throughout the postseason with a .921 SV% and 1.90 GAA compared to .896 and 2.69 marks on the road.

Additionally, we haven’t had a game go to overtime in this series, and there’s always potential for the OT bailout given where we are in the series.

Oilers vs Panthers odds

Oilers vs Panthers live odds

Oilers vs Panthers opening odds

  • Puck line: Edmonton +1.5 (-225) | Florida -1.5 (+180)
  • Moneyline: Edmonton (+115) | Florida (-135)
  • Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5

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Oilers vs Panthers game info

Location: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL
Date: Tuesday, 6-18-2024
Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: ABC, Sportsnet

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