No. 4 Ole Miss travels to face No. 21 Florida as a 3.5-point underdog Saturday afternoon at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Fla.
My Ole Miss vs. Florida prediction and college football picks backs the Rebels to win outright but my key top pick targets the Over as the two teams take the field at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Who will win Ole Miss vs Florida: Ole Miss moneyline
The Ole Miss Rebels moneyline is playable at 44% or better.
The counter is obvious: The Florida Gators are at home for their conference opener, Ole Miss is coming off an emotional win over former coach Lane Kiffin, and this is the Rebels’ first road game. That spot favors Florida significantly because of the potential letdown. I don’t care. I'll ride with QB Trinidad Chambliss.
I think there's a good chance this turns into a shootout, and that's a situation I'd favor Ole Miss in. The Gators' defensive numbers are pretty eye-opening, especially considering the schedule outside of Auburn: 126th nationally in EPA allowed per rush, 83rd nationally in EPA allowed per pass.
Lead back Kewan Lacy is questionable to go in this matchup, but even if he can't play, the Rebels have suitable alternatives in the backfield to attack a porous rush defense (outside of what the QB can do).
You may get a better number come kickoff, as sharp money has piled in on Florida, but sometimes squares win too.
COVERS INTEL: Florida committed 16 penalties for 138 yards in last week’s win over Auburn.
TOP PICK
Ole Miss vs Florida Over/Under pick: Over 59.5
The Over 59.5 is playable to 60.5.
Florida’s first three games produced 87, 55 and 83 total points, while Ole Miss’ produced 79, 50 and 56. The early schedules inflate some of that output, but both teams have shown they can score against quality competition.
Florida scored 44 at Auburn, and Ole Miss posted 32 against LSU after Lacy left with his shoulder injury. The metrics list the Gators at an impressive +1.01 offensive EPA per play, No. 2 nationally. That number will regress, but Florida’s offense has still been productive against Auburn.
The Ole Miss defense hasn't been good this season by according to any underlying metric and with Chambliss on the other side of the ball, you expect the Rebels to put up points until proven otherwise.
Ole Miss vs Florida combo
The Over fits how both offenses have been scoring lately. As we've covered throughout this article, both defenses have clear weaknesses, and I expect those to show up early and often.
That's why we paired it with Florida to cover the first half and Ole Miss to cover the full game. The letdown spot gives the Gators a real chance to come out fast and grab an early edge.
Over four quarters, though, Chambliss should keep Ole Miss in it and give the Rebels enough offense to pull ahead late.
Ole Miss vs Florida combo
- Over 59.5
- Florida 1st Half -2.5
- Ole Miss +3.5
- Top picks: 3-1, +1.90 units
- Combos: 1-3, +1.90 units
Ole Miss vs Florida odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Ole Miss +3.5 | Florida -3.5
- Over/Under: Over 58.5 (52%) | Under 58.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Ole Miss 42% | Florida 59%
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Ole Miss vs Florida weather
The forecast calls for mostly sunny conditions with temperatures around 86 degrees at kickoff. The heat should not disrupt the passing game, but it could test both defenses late and support the Over.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Ole Miss vs Florida trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Rebels last 4 games as an underdog. Find more college football betting trends for Ole Miss vs. Florida.
How to watch Ole Miss vs Florida
| Location | Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fla. |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Ole Miss vs Florida latest injuries
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