One of the oldest battles in hockey takes center stage Saturday night as Montreal and Toronto renew their rivalry one more time. If that doesn't get you pumped, you don't have a pulse.
My Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prediction breaks down the matchup, with Montreal coming into this one as 54% favorites at Novig.
Tap into my NHL picks for Saturday, Nov. 7, and let's keep building.
TOP PICK
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs prediction: Leafs moneyline
We love ourselves an Original Six showdown - and it's going to be an entertaining one. Toronto's offense comes into this one averaging 3.60 goals per game, while Montreal isn't far behind at 3.37.
What's giving me the edge with the Leafs? Aside from the value we're getting as underdogs, Toronto owns a significant advantage on special teams. The Leafs boast the NHL's sixth-ranked power play (11th in expected goals), while Montreal sits 30th. Toronto also features a top-five penalty kill compared to the Canadiens' 14th-ranked unit. It's why Toronto is one of my favorite NHL moneyline picks today - that's a mismatch I'm more than happy to capitalize on.
This is playable to 53%.
COVERS INTEL: Sergei Bobrovky is coming off the best game of his season against the Mammoth, recording 1.16 goals saved above expected. I'm rocking with him to keep the momentum going.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs combo
Jack Roslovic and Auston Matthews are second in the league in xGoals% for lines that have played together for 50 minutes or more, and with Roslovic riding a seven-game point streak, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt to find himself on the scoresheet one more time.
Elsewhere, Juraj Slafkovsky has notched three points in his last two while playing nearly 19 minutes per game. We'll take that.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs combo
- Leafs moneyline
- Jack Roslovic 1+ point
- Juraj Slafkovsky 1+ point
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs player prop: Jack Roslovic 1+ point
Roslovic has been a man possessed on the top line in Toronto, recording 12 points in his last seven games playing alongside Matthews. We're going to squeeze as much money out of this as possible until the well runs dry. With a 30% share of possible ice time, we'll get the volume we need to find the scoresheet.
At 56%, we're still getting enough value - I'd play this to 59%.
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs goal scorer: Auston Matthews
We're back riding the bell cow that's produced over four units for us this season. Matthews is a big reason why the Leafs' power play is clicking at a 28% clip. His 2.4 expected goals on the man advantage is 29th in hockey, giving me all the confidence he'll find twine one more time.
- Top picks: 9-11, -1.23 units
- Combos: 6-13, +3.80 units
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Canadiens 54% | Maple Leafs 47%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (53%) | Under 6.5 (48%)
- Spread: Canadiens -1.5 (32%) | Maple Leafs +1.5 (69%)
For the full slate of NHL matchups, check out our NHL odds board!
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs trend
The Over is 4-0-2 in the Canadiens' last six games as an underdog. Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Canadiens vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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