Josh Anderson and Colton Dach are two under-the-radar wingers quietly leading their teams in shot-generating efficiency at 5-on-5.
With favorable matchups against two of the league's worst shot-suppression teams, they headline the three players I'm targeting with my NHL predictions for today's 12-game slate.
Let's take a look at my NHL picks for Saturday, Nov. 7.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Josh Anderson Over 1.5 shots |
50% |
 Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 points |
57% |
 Colton Dach Over 1.5 shots |
52% |
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Pick #1: Josh Anderson Over 1.5 shots
I’d back Josh Anderson Over 1.5 shots up to 57%.
Anderson is a shoot-first winger who trails Cole Caufield by just two 5-on-5 shots for the top spot on the Montreal Canadiens.
He has a favorable matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs, who sit 27th in shots against this season.
They also rank fifth in pace, making this a high-event matchup that should create plenty of opportunities for shots and offense.
Anderson has cleared this line in all six games against bottom-10 shot-suppression teams, and recorded three shots against the Maple Leafs on opening night.
- Matchup: Montreal Canadiens vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
- TV: SN, ESPN+
Pick #2: Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 points
Brandon Hagel is playable for a point to 60%.
He’s averaging well over a point per game and leads the high-powered Tampa Bay Lightning in attempts, shots on goal, scoring chances, and expected goals.
While he has a tough matchup on paper against the Minnesota Wild, it’s not quite as difficult as it looks.
The Wild are playing the second half of a back-to-back against a rested Lightning team. They’re also starting Calvin Pickard in goal after using Jesper Wallstedt last night.
Wallstedt leads the NHL in goals saved above expected by a healthy margin, while Pickard has a -2.6 GSAx through just two starts.
He’s likely to have a difficult time slowing down Hagel and a dangerous Lightning offense.
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Minnesota Wild
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Grand Casino Arena, Minnesota
- TV: SN+, ESPN+
Pick #3: Colton Dach Over 1.5 shots
Colton Dach is a target for 2+ shots to 58%.
The Edmonton Oilers are loaded with firepower, yet it’s Dach who leads the team in shot-generating efficiency.
He’s averaging 7.93 shots on goal per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, a number that has soared to 11.86 while skating on the second line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
The Vancouver Canucks are giving up more than 31 shots on goal per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. No other team is allowing even 30.
Dach has recorded multiple shots on goal in both meetings with the Canucks this season, and that was before he started logging 15 minutes of ice time per night.
- Matchup: Vancouver Canucks vs. Edmonton Oilers
- Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton
- TV: SN, ESPN+
- Top picks: 24-31, -13.08 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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