The 8-3 Indianapolis Colts have now lost two of their last three games but are back at home for the first time since Week 8 when they host a hot Houston Texans team that has won four of their last five games.
The Colts will be happy to be back home, and I expect them to get back to their roots with the run game.
Find out who I like in my Texans vs. Colts predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, November 30.
Texans vs Colts prediction
Texans vs Colts Best bet: Tyler Warren Under 50.5 receiving yards (-114)
It has been a great rookie season for tight end Tyler Warren, who has 55 catches for 662 yards and three touchdowns in 11 games. However, this is not the best matchup for him against a Houston Texans defense that has been great against tight ends this season.
Warren has 435 of his 662 yards after the catch this season, which is the most among tight ends in the NFL. He has also recorded 25 yards after the catch or more in eight games this season, which is tied with Travis Kelce for the most such games among tight ends this season.
Meanwhile, the Texans have allowed tight ends to average just 15.9 yards after the catch per game, which is the second fewest in the NFL.
They also rank first in the NFL in defending the play action pass this season. Warren and Michael Pittman Jr. have been the main two targets from play action passes for the Indianapolis Colts this season.
This game will likely be a heavy run game for the Colts, and they will likely need to utilize guys like Alec Pierce and Josh Downs more so than Warren against this defense in the passing game.
Warren is a great talent, but you must play the matchups, and this is a bad one for him.
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Texans vs Colts same-game parlay
To add to my best bet, I am going to add both Jonathan Taylor and Daniel Jones to hit their rushing totals.
Taylor averages 120.5 yards per game in his career against the Texans and any quarterback with any running ability at all has hit at least nine yards against the Texans this season.
Texans vs Colts SGP
- Tyler Warren Under 50.5 receiving yards
- Jonathan Taylor Over 85.5 rushing yards
- Daniel Jones Over 8.5 rushing yards
Our big-ticket SGP: One-Sided Run Game
C.J. Stroud is returning from injury, so I do not expect to see him taking off much here and the Colts do not allow a ton of scrambles.
Texans vs Colts SGP
- Tyler Warren Under 50.5 receiving yards
- Jonathan Taylor Over 85.5 rushing yards
- Daniel Jones Over 8.5 rushing yards
- C.J. Stroud Under 14.5 rushing yards
Texans vs Colts odds
- Spread: Houston +3.5 (-115) | Indianapolis -3.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Houston +152 | Indianapolis -180
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-112) | Under 44.5 (-108)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Texans vs Colts trend to know
The Houston Texans have only hit the Game Total Over in six of their last 21 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Colts.
How to watch Texans vs Colts
| Location | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Sunday, November 30, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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