The Kansas City Chiefs get a cushy matchup against the woeful Miami Dolphins on Sunday, Sept. 27, making them the ideal target in our NFL survivor pool expert picks for Week 3.
Our experts have locked in their NFL picks, and they're zeroing in on the Chiefs nearly across the board given that irresistible clash in Miami. If you're still alive, the San Francisco 49ers are appealing this week too.
NFL survivor pool expert picks for Week 3
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Expert | Pick |  Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Dustin Saracini |
 Chiefs |
85% |
 Josh Inglis |
 49ers |
79% |
 Joe Osborne |
Chiefs |
85% |
 Geoff Clark |
Chiefs |
85% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Dustin Saracini’s expert pick: Chiefs
Price: 85% at Kalshi
We hit our San Francisco 49ers play last week and have to run back our strategy of simply fading the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. Don't fix what ain't broken. This is undoubtedly (again) the best bet if you want to advance to Week 4, so lean on the Kansas City Chiefs.
We're seeing the largest spread on the slate, and for good reason. The Fins enter this game with the worst point differential in the AFC (minus-36), and the fourth-worst red-zone defense in football. Expect Patrick Mahomes and Co. to play with their food and dominate.
Josh Inglis' survivor pick: 49ers
Price: 79% at Kalshi
I'll save the Chiefs in my back pocket. The San Francisco 49ers finally get home after a world tour and are playing elite football that might have them as the best team in the NFC, and maybe overall (sorry, Buffalo's defense). They're getting MVP play from Brock Purdy, and the Arizona Cardinals' Week 1 win is going to look like an outlier after this week.
Joe Osborne's survivor pick: Chiefs
Price: 85% at Kalshi
It's a great time to back the Chiefs. They're fresh and looking rejuvenated, so playing down to the competition is highly unlikely here. While Kansas City seems ready to be back in Super Bowl contention, Miami fields one of the NFL's worst rosters, and the Dolphins have only scored two total touchdowns so far this season.
Geoff Clark’s expert pick: Chiefs
Price: 85% at Kalshi
I'd rather take the "free square" and survive than save the Chiefs for another week. Mahomes and running back Kenneth Walker are healthy. Kansas City is motivated after a lost season last year, and the Chiefs won't let their guard down against the Dolphins, who are a heavy favorite to finish with the NFL's worst record.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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