The 4-8 New Orleans Saints are somehow still alive in the NFC South race, and they get a favorable matchup on Sunday when they travel to the Meadowlands to take on the 2-10 New York Giants. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET at MetLife Stadium with the game airing on FOX.
The Saints have won two of their last three games after losing seven straight. The Giants have lost seven consecutive games and seem to have given up on this season after releasing Daniel Jones. My selections for Saints vs. Giants see Alvin Kamara breaking some long runs on this porous defense.
Find out why I am backing the star running back in my NFL picks for Sunday, December 8.
Saints vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Pick: Alvin Kamara longest rush Over 17.5 yds (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Alvin Kamara may be getting up there in age for a running back, but he still has those explosive plays in his game. He has 23 runs of 10+ yards and 45 runs in which he reached at least 15 MPH. Both of those numbers are second-highest in any given season throughout his career.
Now he gets to face the 29th-ranked rushing defense in the NFL and a team that has allowed 52 runs of at least 10 yards. Only the Indianapolis Colts have allowed more runs of that distance this season. Last week, the New York Giants allowed a 22-yard rush to Rico Dowdle.
In fact, the Giants have allowed a run of 18 or more yards in each of the last eight games and in 10 games overall this season. Now, given that Kamara is the starting running back, he is obviously the most likely candidate to hit that mark for the New Orleans Saints. But to dig even deeper than just Kamara’s ability, look at the other possible options.
Taysom Hill is out injured, as he would be the second most likely candidate. A few of those long runs given up by the Giants have been quarterbacks, but Derek Carr is far from a mobile threat out of the pocket. He has 59 yards rushing this season with a long of 13 yards. Jamaal Williams only has 32 carries on the season and is mostly used for short yardage situations.
Kamara has hit this number of at least 18 yards in three of the past five games. Those came against the Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers, and Los Angeles Chargers. All three of those teams rank in the top 12 of most 10+ yards rushing attempts allowed. However, they are all lower than these Giants, and Kamara should be able to break another long one on Sunday.
Saints vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Alvin Kamara Over 79.5 rushing yards
Under 41
Drew Lock Under 197.5 passing yards
Since we cannot use our best bet in a same-game parlay, we will pivot to Kamara’s rushing total instead. With the high winds and bad rushing defense, he should get enough volume to surpass this number rather easily. We will also add the Under with the likelihood of both teams sticking to the run game.
Finally, I will add Drew Lock to go Under 197.5 passing yards. Last week in perfect indoor conditions, he only threw for 178 yards. The Saints are coming off a game where they only allowed 183 yards passing to Matthew Stafford last week.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Saints vs Giants odds
Saints vs Giants live odds
Saints vs Giants opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans -3.5 (-115) | New York +3.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: New Orleans (-225) | New York (+180)
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 (-110) | Under 39.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Saints vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread was a pick-em before the season and opened at the Saints at -3.5 this week and has climbed to -4.5 as of Friday night.
- The Saints are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games, and the Giants are 2-9-1 ATS on the season.
- The total was 41.5 before the season and re-opened at 39.5 this week and has climbed back up to 41 as of Friday night.
- Three of the previous four matchups between these two teams have gone Under the total.
Saints vs Giants betting trend to know
The New York Giants have only hit the Game Total Over in seven of their last 20 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Giants.
How to watch Saints vs Giants game info
| Location: | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-8, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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