We’re rolling into Week 14 with some momentum after a 10-5-1 ATS week that finally put a dent in the season-long grind. The board treated us well, the reads were sharp, and we’re starting to trend in the right direction at the perfect time of year. Now it’s time to keep stacking wins.
Week 14 brings a loaded slate with playoff races tightening, injuries reshaping matchups, and plenty of spots the market hasn’t fully corrected for yet.
I’ve gone through every game, every number, and every angle to bring you my NFL picks against the spread for all 14 matchups.
Week 14 NFL picks against the spread
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Cowboys vs  Lions |
(-3) |
 Steelers vs  Ravens |
(-5.5) |
 Seahawks vs  Falcons |
(+7.5) |
 Titans vs  Browns |
(+3.5) |
 Dolphins vs  Jets |
(-3) |
 Saints vs  Buccaneers |
(-8.5) |
 Colts vs  Jaguars |
(-1.5) |
 Commanders vs  Vikings |
(+1.5) |
 Bengals vs  Bills |
(-5.5) |
 Broncos vs  Raiders |
(+7.5) |
 Bears vs  Packers |
(-6.5) |
 Rams vs  Cardinals |
(+8.5) |
 Texans vs  Chiefs |
(-3.5) |
 Eagles vs  Chargers |
(-3) |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 12-2.
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Expert Week 14 NFL ATS picks
Cowboys vs. Lions: Lions -3
I'm not sold on either team being as good or as bad as they've looked for the last month. I trust Jared Goff and the Lions' run game to keep the Cowboys defense on its toes. Dallas has benefitted from playing two straight home games, but it's just 2-4 away from AT&T Stadium.
Steelers vs. Ravens: Ravens (-5.5)
The Ravens laid a stinker on Thursday night. However, they are actually a good team... unlike the Steelers. This is a perfect buy-low spot for them.
Seahawks vs. Falcons: Falcons (+7.5)
The Seahawks are feeling fat and happy after shutting out the Vikings last week, and now travel across the country for an early start. The Falcons may be all but out of it, but they have enough weapons to score and keep this close.
Titans vs. Browns: Titans (+3.5)
In a battle of bad vs. awful, I will happily take the points at +3.5. This feels like a low-scoring, last-second field goal type of game.
Dolphins vs. Jets: Jets (-3)
I don't think backing Miami in the freezing cold is a good idea. Thus, backing the Jets for the second week in a row.
Saints vs. Buccaneers: Buccaneers (-8.5)
The Buccaneers looked good in Week 14, even if the final score didn't paint the same picture. They dominated the Cardinals, and at home, should do the same against the Saints.
Colts vs. Jaguars: Colts (-1.5)
The Colts are reeling, but all my trust for the Jags went out the window after blowing that massive lead vs. the Texans. I'll take the Colts in a bounce-back spot here.
Commanders vs. Vikings: Commanders (+1.5)
Nobody should bet on this game. If you do, grab the points with the Commanders and hope for the best.
Bengals vs. Bills: Bills (-5.5)
Tip of the cap to Joe Burrow for playing well in his return to action. Unfortunately, that joy will be short-lived as the Bills dominate from start to finish.
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Broncos vs. Raiders: Raiders (+7.5)
I don't know what to do with the Broncos. They continue to win games, but only just. The last meeting between these two was a 10-7 dud. Why not try for another?
Bears vs. Packers: Packers (-6.5)
The Bears ran all over the Eagles in their Black Friday win, but the Packers' defense is a different beast. I don't trust Caleb Williams to make enough plays through the air to keep this one close.
Rams vs. Cardinals: Cardinals (+8.5)
I'm playing the number here. This is too many points to lay on the road in a division game. Jacoby Brissett has shown flashes, and both teams rate out pretty evenly across the board.
Texans vs. Chiefs: Chiefs (-3.5)
Maybe I'm crazy, but the Chiefs at home laying under a touchdown seems like a steal. They're 5-1 at home, scoring an average of 28 points. Even if we factor in the Texans' defense, I think 24 points is good enough to cover this spread.
Eagles vs. Chargers: Eagles (-3)
I'll take the Eagles on the road here. Justin Herbert's hand is a major concern, and the Chargers don't have a run game to take some of the pressure off him.
My NFL ATS record is 97-95-2 this season for -4.5 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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