The Houston Texans visit Arrowhead Stadium tonight in a Sunday Night Football matchup with major implications against the Kansas City Chiefs.
My Texans vs. Chiefs predictions focus on Houston QB C.J. Stroud and his rushing prowess in particular.
My NFL picks for Sunday, December 7, are below.
Texans vs Chiefs prediction
Texans vs Chiefs Best bet: C.J. Stroud Over 12.5 rushing yards (-114)
C.J. Stroud probably still has nightmares about that last meeting with the Kansas City Chiefs. The Houston Texans' quarterback was pressured on more than 51% of his dropbacks and was sacked eight times in the 23-14 loss to the Chiefs last January.
He’ll face similar pressure from Steve Spagnuolo this Sunday, with the Kansas City defensive coordinator blitzing at the third-highest rate in the NFL. And while the Texans’ offensive line is improved from last year (not that tough to do, considering how bad they were), Stroud will feel that heat on a chilly night in Chiefs Kingdom.
That constant hounding forced Stroud to take off with the football six times for 42 rushing yards in that postseason matchup. In his first seven games of 2025, Stroud was also doing damage with his legs. He rushed four or more times in five of those games, amassing at least 22 rushing yards in all but one of those seven showings.
Then, early into the second quarter versus the Denver Broncos in Week 9, Stroud took off down the middle of the field and bashed his helmet off the turf as he was tackled sliding. He would suffer a concussion that would take him out for the next three games before returning to action in the win over the Indianapolis Colts last weekend.
Stroud and offensive coordinator Nick Caley were cautious in that game, with no designed runs for the QB, and Stroud was hesitant to take off when the pocket collapsed. Now, with another week to recover and Kansas City presenting a much more aggressive pressure than the Colts, the Texans' QB will need to use his legs on Sunday night.
The Chiefs’ pass rush has prompted rival QBs to turn into runners at a high rate, with KC seeing the fourth highest rushing attempts from the position and allowing the eighth most rushing yards to quarterbacks.
Player projections for Stroud all sit above his current rushing bar of 12.5 yards, with most models at 16-plus and a ceiling of 23 yards.
Texans vs Chiefs SNF same-game parlay
Houston’s defense is elite and did a great job bottling up Mahomes in last year’s playoff game. This feels like a field goal game, so I’ll take the half-point hook on Houston.
Stroud is over his concussion and will be forced to keep plays alive with his legs against the Chiefs’ aggressive pass rush.
Jayden Higgins’ targets are climbing with at least five in four straight games, and the 6-foot-4 WR has four TDs on the year — two in the past four weeks.
Texans vs Chiefs SGP
- Texans +3.5
- C.J. Stroud Over 12.5 rushing yards
- Jayden Higgins anytime touchdown
Welcome Missouri! Sign up now and claim up to $4,615 in bonuses!
Regulated sports betting is now live in the Show Me State! Join the action now, with more than $4,600 in available welcome offers from sportsbooks now available in Missouri!
🔍 Learn more about Missouri sports betting
💰 Find the best Missouri sportsbook promos
📱 Find the best Missouri sports betting apps
🗳️ Win a $1,000 bankroll in our FREE Missouri launch contest
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our big-ticket SGP: Stroud delivers
The Chiefs lack explosive plays and drives die in the red zone. That’s not what you want versus the Texans' defense.
Stroud rushed for 42 yards against Kansas City in last year's Divisional Round game.
Higgins has three touchdowns from seven red-zone targets.
Rashee Rice is a zone buster and scored two touchdowns last Thursday.
Texans vs Chiefs SGP
- Texans +3.5
- C.J. Stroud Over 12.5 rushing yards
- Jayden Higgins anytime touchdown
- Rashee Rice anytime touchdown
Texans vs Chiefs odds
- Spread: Houston +3.5 (-105) | Kansas City -3.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Houston +168 | Kansas City -200
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (-118) | Under 41.5 (-104)
Texans vs Chiefs betting trend to know
Houston is 6-15 Over/Under in its last 21 games overall, including 3-8-1 O/U this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Texans vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Texans vs Chiefs
| Location | GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Sunday, December 7, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Texans vs Chiefs latest injuries
Texans vs Chiefs weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
