NFL Thanksgiving and Black Friday Games 2026: Early Predictions, Odds, and Picks

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst 21+ years betting experience
Updated: May 14, 2026 , 07:41 PM ET • 4 min read

The NFL is hijacking your Thanksgiving holiday in 2026, and we couldn’t be more excited.

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4).
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4).

NFL Week 12 has five games on the go before the weekend, including the standard three matchups on Thanksgiving Thursday.

Thought you would hit up your hometown bar and see the high school pals on Wednesday, November 25? Nope.

There’s a “Thanksgiving Eve” game on the go, with the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Green Bay Packers.

Planned on door-crashing the Best Buy for a killer deal on a new TV? You’d better be back in time to set it up for the standalone showdown on Black Friday.

With the 2026 NFL schedule release here, I’m getting a head start on planning my holiday viewing and making early NFL picks for the five games during Thanksgiving Week.

2026 Thanksgiving Week Schedule & Odds

For the first time ever, the NFL will play a game on “Thanksgiving Eve” with a standalone showcase on Wednesday, November 25.

Green Bay visits the L.A. Rams for an 8 p.m. ET primetime kickoff. That contest and the Black Friday game between the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers bookend the usual three Thursday matchups.

Here's the schedule and look-ahead lines for those five contests.

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NFL Thanksgiving Schedule 2026

  • Nov. 25, 8 p.m. ET: Packers Green Bay Packers at Rams Los Angeles Rams 
  • Nov. 26, 1 p.m. ET: Bears Chicago Bears at Lions Detroit Lions 
  • Nov. 26, 4:30 p.m. ET: Eagles Philadelphia Eagles at Cowboys Dallas Cowboys 
  • Nov. 26, 8:20 p.m. ET:  Chiefs Kansas City Chiefs at Bills Buffalo Bills 
  • Nov. 27, 3 p.m. ET: Broncos Denver Broncos at Steelers Pittsburgh Steelers 

NFL Thanksgiving Odds 2026

Matchup Spread Moneyline Over/Under
Green Bay Packers
vs
L.A. Rams Rams
+4.5 -120
-4.5 -102
+176
-210
o49.5 -115
u49.5 -105

Chicago Bears
vs
Detroit Lions

+2.5 -115
-2.5 -105
+108
-126
o53.5 -112
u53.5 -108

Philadelphia Eagles
vs
Dallas Cowboys

+1.5 -118
-1.5 -104
-102
-116
o49.5 -115
u49.5 -105

Kansas City Chiefs
vs
Bills Bills

+2.5 -106
-2.5 -114
+120
-142
o50.5 -105
u50.5 -115

Denver Broncos
vs
Pittsburgh Steelers

-1.5 -110
+1.5 -110
-120
+102
o39.5 -110
u39.5 -110

Packers vs. Rams Early Prediction

Pick: Packers Packers +4.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

Without knowing what’s going on in Week 11 for either side, I’m inclined to take the Green Bay Packers with the hook at +4.5.

Green Bay is expected to be one of the top contenders in the NFC, and while the Los Angeles Rams belong in that tier as well, the short week, combined with 11 games of wear and tear, could become an issue for veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford.

Bears vs. Lions Early Prediction

Pick: Under 53.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

The Detroit Lions have a new OC in Drew Petzing, who is focused on running the ball.

That's been the Chicago Bears' biggest soft spot on defense, so we could see the Lions grind out gains on the ground and keep Caleb Williams and the Bears offense on the sideline.

Both teams are disruptive on defense, with Chicago snatching INTs and Detroit bringing QB pressure. 

Eagles vs. Cowboys Early Prediction

Pick: Cowboys Cowboys -1.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

The Dallas Cowboys don’t have a great track record on Thanksgiving, going 4-11 ATS in their last 15 Turkey Day games. Dallas did, however, win and cover against Kansas City in last year’s annual holiday showcase.

Dak Prescott & Co. have also been dominant at home against NFC East opponents since 2021, going 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS. I’ll lay the short number with America’s Team on Thanksgiving Day.

Chiefs vs Bills Early Prediction

Pick: Bills Bills moneyline (-142 at FanDuel)

A lot could change for these teams between now and Thanksgiving (all eyes on Patrick Mahomes’ ACL recovery), but from what we know about this rivalry, we can predict a barnburner in Buffalo.

I’m going to pass on the point spread and simply take the Buffalo Bills to win outright. Six of the last 10 instalments in this rivalry have been decided by one score, with three of those coming by a field goal.

The brand new Highmark Stadium will be rocking with a well-oiled Bills Mafia, running on both Wild Turkey and actual turkey.

Broncos vs Steelers Early Prediction

Pick: Under 39.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

The Black Friday game is currently off the board as the Pittsburgh Steelers’ quarterback situation remains up in the air.

Maybe it’s Aaron Rodgers? Maybe it's Mason Rudolph?

The Denver Broncos also have concerns at quarterback, with Bo Nix coming off a broken ankle and two surgeries this offseason, though he’s expected to be ready for Week 1.

What we do know is that this matchup should feature a low total, fitting for those low, low prices on Black Friday.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst Jason Logan has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason's first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast at stations like WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio, Jason's analysis has also been featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers' flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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