The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can pull away in the NFC South with a win over the New Orleans Saints at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday.
My Saints vs. Buccaneers predictions expect Baker Mayfield to shine against a weak NOLA defense.
Read more in my NFL picks for December 7.
Saints vs Buccaneers prediction
Saints vs Buccaneers Best bet: Baker Mayfield Over 216.5 passing yards (-114)
There’s a sizable gap in Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield’s numbers at Raymond James Stadium and the highway, with the veteran averaging 249 yards per game and 7.6 yards per target at home compared to respective 193.6 and 6.0 marks on the road.
This is also the lowest passing yards total for Mayfield since the beginning of the 2024 campaign, and there’s nothing scary about the New Orleans Saints' pass defense.
NOLA has allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt and 11th-highest EPA per dropback, ranking 22nd in pass defense DVOA.
Additionally, New Orleans is 29th in PFF pass rush grade and 30th in pass rush win rate, while Tampa Bay is 15th in pass block grade and fifth in pass block win rate.
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Saints vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
I expect New Orleans to be outmatched on both sides of the ball, particularly with the Tampa Bay defense ranking eighth in defensive DVOA going against rookie QB Tyler Shough. The Saints have already lost by double-digits six times this season and average the third-fewest points per game (15.2).
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, look for Tampa Bay running back Bucky Irving to find the end zone again in Week 14. He scored in his return to action last week, and the Saints have allowed a rushing score in five of their past six contests.
Saints vs Buccaneers SGP
- Buccaneers -8.5
- Baker Mayfield Over 216.5 passing yards
- Bucky Irving anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Godwin Mode
Tampa wideout Chris Godwin garnered two red-zone targets in Week 13, and he and Mayfield connected for five touchdowns across seven games before Godwin’s injury last season.
Saints vs Buccaneers SGP
- Buccaneers -8.5
- Baker Mayfield Over 216.5 passing yards
- Bucky Irving anytime touchdown
- Chris Godwin anytime touchdown
Saints vs Buccaneers odds
- Spread: Saints +8.5 (-115) | Buccaneers -8.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Saints +375 | Buccaneers -500
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 (-105) | Under 43.5 (-115)
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Saints vs Buccaneers trend to know
Tampa Bay has won 13 of its last 21 games (+4.75 Units / 11% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Buccaneers.
How to watch Saints vs Buccaneers
| Location | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Sunday, December 7, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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