Week 17 of the NFL betting season is the perfect way to start 2021.
The volatility, varying agendas, and stomach-churning unknowns at the end of the regular season run parallel to the beginning of the new year. No one knows what’s going to happen when the whistle blows on Week 17, nor when the ball drops on 2021.
If you’re “betting on” or “bracing for” what comes next, the process is the same: keep looking for your edge and try to have fun. Happy New Year and best of luck in 2021.
Now, on with the betting picks and predictions for NFL Underdogs in Week 17.
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers (+7) Pick
Week 17 has all the stability of a swing set bought on Wish.com. In these uncertain times, it’s nice to have something consistent. And this Sunday, that’s the Carolina Panthers.
The Panthers are getting a touchdown at home to the Saints and while Carolina doesn’t have anything to play for in the standings, there’s a lot on the line for this franchise in the final game.
Head coach Matt Rhule has done a great job in Year 1 and is more focused on building a culture of winning instead of improving the Panthers’ draft position by botching this season finale. In a tweet sent out on Monday, Rhule blasted the Philadelphia 76ers’ “process” of tanking in the early 2010s and indicated his team won’t be lying down versus New Orleans. Rhule is not only setting the tone for his team but also for the pending GM hire in Carolina.
More from Rhule: "I was in Philadelphia when the Sixers were in the 'trust the process,' tanking thing, and they haven't hung one in the rafters, yet."
— Joe Person (@josephperson) December 28, 2020
He’s not the only one out to impress in the final contest either. Veteran quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has once again exceeded expectations yet still finds himself fighting for the starting gig in 2021. The Panthers will undoubtedly be scouting future franchise QBs at the combine and have already sniffed around Washington castoff Dwayne Haskins.
Granted, Bridgewater isn’t going to stack up the passing yards like some of the young guns in the league, but he’s consistent. And how many teams would have been punching a postseason ticket if they just had a “consistent” QB?
One of Bridgewater’s rare bloopers cost Carolina a win over Green Bay in Week 15 but this team has still covered in six of its last nine games, including a 27-24 defeat in New Orleans as a seven-point pup in Week 7. In fact, the Panthers have covered in five of their last six matchups with NOLA.
The Saints are fresh off a Christmas Day win over Minnesota and while the 53 points they produced was impressive, the 33 points allowed by this defense should be concerning. New Orleans’ stop unit has been elite for most of the year but has allowed 0.408 points per play over the past three outings, after giving up only 0.338 points per play in the first 12 games of the season.
New Orleans needs the win in Week 17, so it isn’t looking too far ahead to the playoffs, but a shot at the NFC’s No. 1 seed requires help from Chicago and Seattle. The Saints have been plagued by injuries in the second half of the schedule and expect key bodies back for the tournament. Staying healthy could take priority in the final 30 minutes of his game, leaving the door open for Teddy B. The “B” should stand for backdoor cover at this point in his career.
PREDICTION: Carolina +7 (-113)
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears (+5.5) Pick
I can’t tell if Bears fans are happy or not about the team’s offensive awakening and the second coming of Mitchell Trubisky.
On one hand, Chicago can punch a ticket to the postseason with a win over the rival Cheeseheads in Week 17—a victory that will require another solid effort from this resurgent scoring attack, which has averaged 33 points per game over its last five contests.
On the other, Trubisky’s turnaround since being renamed QB1 after the Week 11 bye could be enough to convince the Bears to give him another kick at the can in 2021. Remembering how erratic Mitch has been during his short pro career (and sizing up the defenses those improved efforts came against), I don’t blame Chicago faithful for being “cautiously pessimistic” … if that’s a thing.
But with the way the Bears are playing right now, mixed with motivation in this season finale, they’re a tempting take-the-points pick at home in Week 17. Especially with Chicago going 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 as a home pup.
Green Bay has plenty on the line as well. The Packers are trying to lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC and Aaron Rodgers is making one last push for MVP before the postseason begins. Green Bay is playing great football at the right time, winning five straight. However, four of those games have come at Lambeau.
This trip to Soldier Field is just the Packers’ second road game in the past 43 days. The last time the Cheeseheads hit the highway was a Week 14 stopover in Detroit, where the Lions backdoor covered on a late-game field goal to stay within the 9.5 points.
Rodgers and the offense don’t skip a beat based on the venue, but the defense does. On the season, Green Bay has allowed 28.1 points per road game compared to only 19.5 at home. Playoffs or no playoffs, this regular season swan song is a do-or-die game for Chicago, Trubisky, and maybe even head coach Matt Nagy.
PREDICTION: Chicago +5.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos (+3) Pick
The Raiders’ first year in Las Vegas didn’t go according to the franchise’s plan, due to the COVID-19 pandemic closing their brand-new $2 billion home to the public. But if you ask the oddsmakers across the street from Allegiant Stadium, they’ll tell you the Raiders are right on track.
Las Vegas’ season win total was set at 7.5 and here we are in Week 17 with the Raiders at 7-8 SU, leaving this finale to decide the Over/Under future. Honestly, win total bettors shouldn’t be forced to sweat this Week 17 matchup—if not for the team’s dismal second half of the schedule. Las Vegas has only one win in the past six games and that was a Hail Mary shart over the Jets.
Vegas climbs high up the mountain for this last game, coming off two crushing losses to Miami and the L.A. Chargers and carrying the weight of a drama-filled 2020 campaign packed with firings, fines, injuries and outbreaks. Denver doesn’t present many positives either, notably a depleted secondary, but the Broncos are at home and can let the thin air of Mile High work for them.
Denver will lean heavily on the ground game against a stop unit that has surrendered an average of almost 154 rushing yards over the last five outings, equalling more than five yards per run to opposing ball carriers. That grind will not only buckle the knees of the D but help the Broncos control possession and limit the exposure of their thin pass defense.
The Broncos pretty much have a bunch of rusty lawn chairs in coverage, but they do tighten their belts in the red zone. Denver is allowing teams to score touchdowns on just 47.46 percent of their trips inside the 20-yard line (No. 1 in the NFL) and wrangles a Raiders attack managing to break the goal line on only 38 percent of their red-zone tries over the past three games.
PREDICTION: Denver +3 (-115)
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 25-23 ATS
NFL Week 17 Betting Card
- Carolina +7 (-113)
- Chicago +5.5 (-110)
- Denver +3 (-115)
Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Underdogs picks, you could win $57.28 on a $10 bet?
Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
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