NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 15

Dec 22, 2020 |
NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 15
The Cincinnati Bengals have topped 10 points just once in their last five games.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
The Cincinnati Bengals have topped 10 points just once in their last five games.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We got NFL action for three-straight days this weekend. We’ve hit the books hard this week, looking into every NFL market in search of value and great numbers — so you don't have to!

Today, we’re stacking a pair of Arizona player props, doing something we never feel comfortable with by betting on the Bears, and taking a stab at some +1,600 money on Sunday-nighter.

We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 15.

NFL Prop Picks for Sunday

Picking on Injuries

The Philadelphia Eagles will be heading into their Week 15 matchup against the Cardinals with severe cornerback issues. Starter Avonte Maddox won’t suit up thanks to a knee injury, and the starter on the other side, Darius Slay, hasn’t practiced this week and is questionable. Philly’s rush defense has played well of late (107 yards allowed per game last three) and could force Arizona to attack through the air even more than their 36 attempts per game.

The real winner here is WR DeAndre Hopkins, who has a 37 percent target share over Arizona’s last two games. Hopkins isn’t a huge YPC receiver, as his 12.3 YPC ranks him outside the Top 50, but only two receivers are averaging more catches per game.

PREDICTION: DeAndre Hopkins Over 6.5 receptions (-112)

 

Drake a Leg

Sticking with the Arizona offense, No. 2 running back Chase Edmonds won’t play on Sunday, opening up a few more touches for starter Kenyan Drake.

Edmonds has been a staple in the passing game, seeing at least five targets in three straight matches, and is averaging nearly 27 receiving yards per game. Although Drake won’t likely absorb all of Edmonds’ 13 percent target share, any extra looks for a back that has 10 receptions over his last four contests is a huge bonus, especially when we can find his reception total at 1.5.

The Eagles have allowed 17 receptions to opposing running backs over their last three games and could be susceptible to the underneath passing game if their depth at CB becomes an issue and they have to adjust.

PREDICTION: Kenyan Drake Over 1.5 receptions (-140)

Betting on Da Bears

The Vikings are allowing over 30 points a game at home this year, as the Over has gone a league-best 6-1 O/U. This week, they entertain the Chicago Bears at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Bears are fresh off a 36-point performance last week and have amassed 91 points over their previous three games.

Minnesota has had to deal with injuries all year on the defensive side of the ball, and losing linebacker Eric Kendricks for another week is a tough blow to this generous defense. Kendricks excels both in coverage and against the run, which could give this suddenly-potent Chicago offense a chance to put up some point indoors on Sunday.

21.5 is a key number in the team total world, with 20.5 being much more preferred. But Chicago has topped this number in three straight games and now faces one of the most giving home defenses in the league.

PREDICTION: Chicago Bears team total Over 21.5 (-108)

 

Longshot of the Week

We’ll wrap Week 15 up with our longshot of the week, which are 1 for 2 and missed last week's, as Keke Coutee scored the third TD of the game, and not the first. On Sunday, we’re traveling to Meadowlands, where the Browns will take on a Giants team likely starting QB Colt McCoy.

The Giants have scored a league-low five touchdowns since Week 12, which gives a little more value in taking a Browns player to score the game’s first TD. With No. 3 WR KhaDarel Hodge trending toward playing, that takes our love for Donovan Peoples-Jones away as he would split snaps. Instead, we’re going with No. 2 wideout Rashard Higgins, who has scored in back-to-back games.

Higgins has 19 targets over Cleveland’s last two games and was the only receiver to get any looks in the red zone last week, which he caught both of. We are taking a stab at some +1,600 action and hope Nick Chubb doesn’t ruin our fun.

PREDICTION: Rashard Higgins first touchdown scorer (+1,600)

NFL Prop Picks for Saturday

Gaging the Over

Atlanta sits in the bottom three in yards per rush, as the Falcons have failed to run the ball successfully all year. In Week 15, they face the Buccaneers and their No. 1 rush defense. Matt Ryan and the passing game could find themselves quite active once again this Sunday.

The Falcons will be without WR Julio Jones (hamstring) again this week, leaving Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage as the biggest benefactors.  It’s the latter that we will be setting our player props sights on, however. 

Gage is playing nearly 80 percent of the snaps over the last four weeks and has collected 32 targets in that time. Those 32 passes rank Gage as the 20th-most targeted WR since Week 11. 

Tampa has allowed the most receptions to opposing WRs over the last three weeks at 33.3 per match. With Atlanta likely to abandon the run thanks to the game script and a general lack of success, we can take the total receptions for Gage as a great volume play.

PREDICTION: Russell Gage Over 4.5 receptions (-115)

 

Big Odds on First TD

Betting on the game’s first touchdown scorer has become one of the most popular player prop picks. The odds are great, and you don’t have to stay up too late if you’re betting something in primetime (thanks LAC/LV). For our introduction into this market, we’ll take baby steps and showcase the one player in the league with the lowest odds to score his game’s first TD.

Davante Adams has scored a TD in eight straight games and is tied with K.C.'s Tyreek Hill for the most receiving TDs at 14. In the nine games that Adams has scored, the receiver has scored the game’s first TD an impressive five times. Two other times, he has scored his team’s first TD. So, if you’re doing the math, in nine games that Adams has scored, he has been the first Packer to score in seven of them.

At +450, we can’t pass up another run at an Adams early TD, especially against the Panthers who let Drew Lock toss four TDs last week.

PREDICTION: Davante Adams first touchdown scorer (+450)

Rolling Taylor

Colts’ rookie RB Jonathan Taylor has found his stride after a long stretch of mediocre play. Taylor has cemented himself as the alpha in the Indy RB pecking order, mainly due to his seven-plus yards per carry across the last two weeks. 

The league’s best offensive line is starting to dominate in the running game and will get to face a Houston squad that owns the No. 29 rush defense and allows five yards per carry.

Taylor is coming off his best game of the year that saw the young RB turn 22 touches into 165 yards and two scores against the Raiders. The Texans gave up 113 yards to Chicago’s David Montgomery on just 11 rushes last week and the week before, Taylor turned 13 carries into 91 yards against Houston. PFF has the Colts as the best rushing matchup on the slate this week. We aren’t messing with what’s working.

PREDICTION: Jonathan Taylor Over 70.5 rushing yards (-118)

 

As Keke as Pie

Correlation stack betting is a term that’s familiar with DFS players and prop bettors alike. It means that you place two bets on the same game that have a higher probability of hitting together. In prop betting, if we think the Colts will be playing with the lead against the Texans and will likely run the ball a lot, we could correlate stack a Colts RB Over rushing total with a Houston WR prop as the Texans’ WRs would also benefit from playing from behind.

With a Jonathan Taylor prop already on deck, we’re adding a Keke Coutee prop to test out this system. Will Fuller’s suspension opened up more volume for the Texans’ receivers. Coutee had a great game in Week 13 (8-141-0) and scored a TD last week against the Bears. Fellow WR Brandin Cooks was limited again this week but Friday reports are stating that Cooks will start against the Colts this weekend. 

Coutee could make more noise as the No. 2 in the Houston passing game (like in Week 13) but could be in for a big volume day if Cooks sits or is limited. We are correlation stack betting plays in what could be a high-scoring match in Indy.

PREDICTION: Keke Coutee Over 50.5 receiving yards (-112)

NFL Prop Picks for Friday

Hurts So Good

Last week, rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts made his first NFL start against one of the best defenses in the league. Hurts and the Eagles walked away with the win over New Orleans as the QB showed off his rushing prowess with 106 yards on the 18 rushes.

The NFL game is incredibly quick for rookie QBs, so it will take some time for the Philly quarterback to read defenses well. Hurts is a 1-2 read quarterback whose internal timer will tell him to tuck the ball and take off running when he passes on his first two looks.

His rushing total has increased 24 yards from 33.5 in Week 14. Facing an Arizona defense that is allowing the second-most QB rushing yards per game, Hurts could improve on those numbers this week.

PREDICTION: Jalen Hurts Over 57.5 rushing yards (-111)

 

TDs on the Sabbath

Just one week ago, the Carolina Panthers gave up 32 points to Denver’s 32nd-ranked offense. Drew Lock tossed four TDs and the Broncos crossed the goal-line five times. In Week 15, Carolina is going from worst to first as they visit the league’s highest-scoring offense on primetime Saturday.

We already are laying some cheddar on Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 passing TDs for plus-money but are going to stack that prop with another one that the Packers have been cashing of late.

Green Bay has scored four or more TDs in four straight games and since Week 12, they are scoring touchdowns in the red zone at an alarming 90 percent success rate.

With low winds and a near-zero chance of precipitation, conditions will be perfect at Lambeau for Rodgers and the league’s most successful offense to keep the TD streak going.

PREDICTION: Green Bay Packers Over 3.5 touchdowns (-115)

Davis Loaded

We love Saturday NFL games so please excuse us with our over-excitement in these Sabbath props.

The No. 2 outside receiver spot in Buffalo has been a great spot for secondary prop markets. WR John Brown hit the Over on his receiving yards in the two games leading up to his injury (Weeks 9 and 10) and his replacement, rookie Gabriel Davis, has started to find his groove within the offense as well.

Davis had 147 yards receiving in Weeks 12 and 13 before the Steelers held him to 19 yards last week. In that game, Davis still had eight targets and a touchdown. This week, the rookie receiver will get to face a bunch of backup defensive backs in Denver as the Broncos have been getting decimated in the secondary.

His receiving yardage total hasn’t fluctuated much considering the positive matchup. Davis’ receiving total closed at 44.5 yards last week, but this week it can be found at a very tasty 39.5 yards.

PREDICTION: Gabriel Davis Over 39.5 receiving yards (-112)

 

Betting on Bailey

Was Dan Bailey’s Week 14 performance the worst game a kicker has ever played? Probably not, but missing all four of his kicks (three FGs and an XP) is not a good time. But fear not, head coach Mike Zimmer has put his confidence behind the veteran kicker and could choose to have Bailey kick instead of going for it on fourth down just to prove his trust to him.

Kickers are overthinkers by nature: you can’t sit on the sidelines for 95 percent of the game and not be. So what would it look like if the Vikings were 4th and two on the 20 and decided to go for it? We can bet the first words out of the broadcast would be about not trusting Bailey.

With the Vikings still pushing for a playoff spot (25 percent chance) they need Bailey to bounce back and we hope Zimmer will give him a chance early in the game (we hope he doesn’t blow an extra point as his first kick).

The Bears allow 2.5 field goal attempts per game, which is the fourth-most in the league, and we think we are getting a better price because the Bailey story is well-known within the public betting sector. The Vikes are also averaging over 29 points per game at home this year.

PREDICTION: Minnesota Vikings Over 1.5 field goals (+100)

NFL Prop Picks for Thursday

Ravens Returning Profits

When a team’s covering first halves at a 77-percent clip, it has our attention. When the said team is playing the league’s second-worst defense and has the reigning MVP, it has us reaching for our wallets.

Baltimore is 10-3 ATS this year in the first 30 minutes and a $100 bet on each of its 1H spreads would mean you’re up $660 on the year. It’s not often we get betting trends that have a 45 percent ROI after 14 weeks of football, but the Ravens are set up nicely for their 11th 1H win of the year this week.

Standing in their way are Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars. The Jags have lost every game since Week 1 and will be making their fourth QB switch of the year this Sunday. Jacksonville is also allowing 16.5 first-half points on the road this year, which is the second-most 1H points allowed in the league.

It’s at -7.5 but is moving towards the -8, despite the Ravens placing two of their top WRs to the COVID list.

PREDICTION: Baltimore Ravens first half -7.5 (-115)

Banking on the Bengals Badness

We took it on the chin last week here but one thing that has been running hot for us is the Under for the Bengals’ team total. Cincinnati scored just seven points against the Cowboys’ brutal defense last week and in doing so, hit their team total Under for the third straight week.

It is no coincidence that QB Brandon Allen has been the driving factor for this streak. Allen had his best game statistically last week, but the Bengals had three turnovers (and zero takeaways) and went an appalling 1-for-4 on fourth down. We are talking about an offense that has scored more than 10 points just once in its last five games.

At 13.5, that is the basement for NFL team totals. Facing the Steelers on Monday night won’t help jump-start an offense that has scored just seven points in each of its last two games.

PREDICTION: Cincinnati Bengals team total Under 13.5 (-105)

We’re All-en

Despite his questionable tag, Chargers’ receiver Keenan Allen is expected to play according to reports. Allen played through a hamstring injury last week and saw a team-high 11 targets, including three red-zone targets. On the year, the WR leads the Chargers in RZ targets with 18—of which he has caught 14 for seven touchdowns.

The trusty receiver also hauled in another TD last week, which was his sixth game finding paydirt over his last seven matches. This week he faces a Las Vegas defense that has surrendered a league-high 115 points since Week 12.

Allen scored in his earlier meeting with Raiders this year and the 28-year-old receiver is averaging 10 catches for 74 yards and 0.42 TDs per game against his division rivals over his career.

We love the number on his receptions but are passing on his yardage total. We're also fond of his even-money anytime TD.

PREDICTION: Keenan Allen Over 6.5 receptions (-125) and anytime TD (+100)

MVP Argument

We get NFL football on Saturday! That’s great news as we have been wanting to ride the Aaron Rodgers madness and couldn’t wait an extra day to do so. Can we argue about an MVP yet?

Rodgers has been racking up the TDs all year, but since Week 7, the Mozzarella Master is averaging 3.25 passing touchdowns per game. Having a healthy Davante Adams has been a blessing for No. 12, as Rodgers has thrown under three TDs just once in his last eight games.

This week, he gets a Carolina defense that gave up 32 points to the league’s worst offense as Denver’s Drew Lock set a career-high with four TDs. If Lock can get four, the sky's the limit for the leader of the league’s best offense.

PREDICTION: Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+121)

Year to date record: 146-112 (57 percent)

NFL Week 15 Prop Betting Card

  • DeAndre Hopkins Over 6.5 receptions (-112)
  • Kenyan Drake Over 1.5 receptions (-140)
  • Chicago Bears team total Over 21.5 (-108)
  • Rashard Higgins first touchdown scorer (+1,600)

     - - 

  • Russell Gage Over 4.5 receptions (-115)
  • Davante Adams first touchdown scorer (+450)
  • Jonathan Taylor Over 70.5 rushing yards (-118)
  • Keke Coutee Over 50.5 receiving yards (-112)

     - - 

  • Jalen Hurts Over 57.5 rushing yards (-111)
  • Green Bay Packers Over 3.5 touchdowns (-115)
  • Gabriel Davis Over 39.5 receiving yards (-112)
  • Minnesota Vikings Over 1.5 field goals (+100)

     - - 

  • Baltimore Ravens first half -7.5 (-115)
  • Cincinnati Bengals team total Under 13.5 (-105)
  • Keenan Allen Over 6.5 receptions (-125) and anytime TD (+100)
  • Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+121)

Where Can I Find NFL Player Props?

You can bet on NFL team and player props at nearly every online and casino sportsbooks. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL player and team props in your area.  

 

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