NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 17

Green Bay WR Davante Adams has five catches of 30+ yards since Week 9 and has a longest-reception prop of 26.5 yards in Week 17 against a Bears defense that is without two key corners.

Last Updated: Jan 3, 2021 8:59 AM ET
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Week 17 can be a minefield when it comes to prop markets, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t plenty of prop-ortunties out there.

We’ve hit the books hard this week, looking into every NFL market in search of value and great numbers—so you don't have to!

We’re looking to cash in on the Saints’ backfield, finding value in some Arizona depth players and finishing the regular season with one more D.K. prop.

We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 17.

NFL Prop Picks for Sunday

Time to Dav-Ante Up

We have already expressed our love this week for a shootout at Soldier Field and with the news of Chicago CBs Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine sitting out Sunday, we like it even more.

Davante Adams has been arguably the best receiver in the NFL this season and now gets to see a secondary without two of its best corner. He is averaging 12.2 yards per catch this year, which isn’t a huge number, but the receiver has had a knack to top his longest reception prop. Since Week 9, the Green Bay WR has had a reception of 22 yards or longer six times and 30 yards or more five times.

Adams is always a threat to take it to the house on any play as his TD prop of -204 suggests. In a game that matters versus a thin secondary, we feel comfortable in the receiver’s ability to break off a long one.

PREDICTION: Davante Adams Over 26.5 yards longest reception (-114)


Sidelined Saints

The Saints will be without running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray (COVID-19) for Sunday’s tilt with the Carolina Panthers and their No. 21 rush defense. Stepping into a bigger role will be RB Ty Montgomery.

The Saints are still in play for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and lead the league in rushing TDs per game at 1.9. Any player taking over that starting role has a great chance to break the plane for six.

At +450, we are without a doubt jumping on the Montgomery anytime TD prop. And since we know coach Sean Payton so well, and his man-crush on RB/QB Taysom Hill, we are throwing down on Hill for a reasonable +275 as well.

PREDICTION: Ty Montgomery anytime TD (+450) and Taysom Hill anytime TD (+275)

My Better Metcalf

Sticking with the same train of thought, the Seahawks have a lot to play for on Sunday while the 49ers...not so much. San Francisco will also be without CBs K'Waun Williams and Richard Sherman with fellow CB Emmanuel Mosely also questionable.

Seattle’s D.K. Metcalf does not need any more help against a 49ers team that he hung a 12/161/2 line on back in Week 8. The Seahawks can still win the No. 1 seed in the NFC and coach Pete Carroll has a record of not sitting his starters.

Metcalf’s receiving yards have taken a hit over the last month, but he is still the most targeted receiver on the offense and has at least five catches in five straight games.

We are taking a jump at plus-money with his reception total at 5.5 and wouldn’t call you crazy for looking into the over on his receiving yard total of 68.5.

PREDICTION: D.K. Metcalf Over 5.5 receptions (+110)


Digging Deep

Arizona was dealt a blow to its playoff chances on Saturday as No. 2 receiver Christian Kirk has hit the COVID list and will miss Sunday’s do-or-die game against the Rams. Kirk’s loss is Andy Isabella’s gain as the No. 4 WR will have a bigger role with Kirk out and Larry Fitzgerald questionable. KeeSean Johnson will also be needed and has been the preferred WR in recent weeks with Isabella riding the pine.

The Rams are one of the NFL's stingiest defenses, but Kirk and Johnson may have the best matchups out of all the Arizona skilled players. WR DeAndre Hopkins will most likely draw all-word corner Jalen Ramsey, leaving Johnson and Isabella to soak up the looks.

QB Kyler Murray is working with an injured leg, which should give the receivers more red-zone targets as the quarterback will look to stay in the pocket. We aren’t expecting many scores with a total of 41, but at these prices, we are taking a stab.

PREDICTION: Andy Isabella anytime TD (+900) and KeeSean Johnson anytime TD (+450)

NFL Prop Picks for Saturday

Rookie Milestone Shopping

The Colts will have motivation on Sunday but their opponents...not so much. Jacksonville is locked into the No. 1 pick, but Indianapolis is playing for their season on Sunday. 

Rookie running back Jonathan Taylor has been running at a 5.5 YPC clip since Week 11 and finds himself 84 yards shy of 1,000 on the year. Coincidentally, his rushing total for the week is 83.5 yards and he is facing the worst overall defense in the Jaguars.

Jacksonville is giving up 178 rushing yards per game since Week 14 and can’t wait for its disastrous season to end. 

We love milestone bets in Week 17, and it’s not often you get a rookie running back 84 yards away from 1k AND his rushing line is set at 83.5. It’s too much of a coincidence not to hit. 

PREDICTION: Jonathan Taylor Over 83.5 rushing yards (-115)


Calvin & Yards

It’s been a rough go for the Atlanta Falcons, with last week’s missed FG pretty much summing up their season. One bright spot though was the emergence of receiver Calvin Ridley.

Ridley has topped 100 yards receiving in four straight games, is averaging 94.4 yards on the year, and has eclipsed his receiving yards total in five of the last six weeks. Facing a Buccaneers secondary that he already lit up for a season-best 10/163/1 two weeks ago, another big showing is likely. Ridley is currently sitting with 1322 receiving yards and nine TDs.

Julio Jones will miss his umpteenth game this weekend, leaving Ridley as the go-to target.

PREDICTION: Calvin Ridley Over 87.5 receiving yards (-112)


No team gets our trend motors going like the Baltimore Ravens. On the year, they’re 12-3 ATS on first-half spreads and have won the first half by seven points or more in four straight.

After their loss to the Steelers, the Ravens have used a soft schedule to build confidence and steamroll weaker opponents — outscoring the enemy 147-86 since Week 13. 

Facing another bottom-feeder this week in the Cincinnati Bengals, the Ravens find themselves with a familiar 1H -6.5 line. The Bengals have won back-to-back games but let’s face it, this is a Cincinnati team that doesn’t want to win another game and possibly move out of the No. 5 spot in the draft.

The Ravens will be in win-mode as they likely need to win to get into the playoffs. Baltimore has covered the 1H in the previous four matchups, including a 27-3 win against Cincy earlier this year where the score was 17-0 after 30 minutes.

PREDICTION: Baltimore Ravens first half -6.5 (-113)


The Nelson-Year Itch

Las VegasNelson Agholor might not be a flashy name, but the veteran receiver has been the Raiders’ best wide receiver since Week 7. The former Eagle has reached 49 yards receiving in five of his last six, which includes a pair of 100-yard games in Weeks 14 and 16.

Vegas has needed to pass a little more of late, as the running game has sputtered down the stretch. His fellow wide receivers have been of little help to the passing game, making Agholor the No. 2 option behind TE Darren Waller.

The Denver Broncos are currently one of the thinnest teams at the cornerback position with Agholor likely drawing a majority of the coverage against CB De’Vante Bausby. The undrafted corner is ranked as the 100th best corner of 126, per PFF and has allowed 25 receptions on 37 targets this year. 

The Raiders receiver had his worst game against the Broncos earlier in Week 10, but with injuries and suspensions to Denver CBs (and a possible revenge angle) in a divisional game, we are blasting the Over. 

PREDICTION: Nelson Agholor Over 49.5 receiving yards (-112)

NFL Prop Picks for Friday

Back to the Basics

The New York Giants are running on empty at the worst time of the year. Needing a win and a Washington loss to get into the playoffs, the Giants have lost three straight games and haven’t even been competitive in any of them.

The G-Men have managed just six first-half points in their previous three games. Getting behind early has forced New York to abandon its ground game, as it has run for just 206 yards since Week 14. Luckily for the Giants, the Cowboys are the most generous team to opposing running backs.

At 161.1 rush yards allowed per game, no team has given up more rushing yards than the Dallas Cowboys. If the Giants can keep things close in this meaningful game, running back Wayne Gallman could exploit a Cowboys defense that is giving up 5.0 yards per rush on the year.

Gallman has just 15 carries over the last two games, but New York has rushed the ball just 33 times thanks to early lopsided scores. The lead back averaged 18 carries per game over NYG’s four-game winning streak from Weeks 9 to 13 and with his 4.5 yards per carry, Gallman would only need 12 carries to reach his total.

PREDICTION: Wayne Gallman Over 53.5 rushing yards (-113)


Hedge Stacking

Sticking with the Cowboys vs. Giants, Dallas is paying plus-money on the first half spread of -0.5. Averaging 18 first-half points over their last three games, the Cowboys offense has been one of the best since Week 14—especially in the game's first 30 minutes.

Andy Dalton and the ‘Boys are 3-0 ATS in the 1H over the last three weeks and get to face a New York offense that has hung an embarrassing six points across its last three 1Hs. Dallas could cash our 1H spread with as little as 10 points with how poorly the Giants have been performing early in games lately.

Our Gallman Over 53.5 rushing yards is a great hedge stack with the Cowboys first half -0.5. The Giants and Cowboys are on two opposite sides of the form spectrum as Dallas is scoring the third-most first-half points per game over their last three while the Giants have scored the least amount of first-half points over the same stretch.

PREDICTION: Dallas Cowboys first half -0.5 (+107)

Wolf in MVP’s Clothing

Heading into the final week of the regular season, the league’s MVP award is Aaron Rodgers’ to lose. Before Week 16, Rodgers was +400 to win the league’s MVP but he now sits at -400 to win the honor as Patrick Mahomes will likely sit out the final game of the regular season.

Rodgers leads the league with 44 passing TDs—six more than the next best quarterback. He has thrown three or more TDs in eight of his last 10 games and will be looking to clinch the NFC No. 1 seed with a win over the Bears on Sunday.

The MVP frontrunner tossed four TDs against this Chicago team back in Week 12 and with how well the Bears offense has been running, Green Bay may need its leader to keep stacking points in a game that features the week’s third-highest total.

We’re hoping head coach Matt LaFleur does everything he can to give the signal-caller a chance to pad his stats and add to his trophy case. The Chicago defense has not played a .500-team since the Packers hung 41 points on it in Week 12.

PREDICTION: Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 passing TDs (+116)

Piece of the Jackson

Baltimore’s playoff hopes are in its own hands as it’s win-and-in for the 10-5 club. They will need a big game from reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, who has been averaging more than 12 carries a game since Baltimore’s Week 7 bye. Of those 12 carries per game, 17 have been in the red zone and five were for TDs.

Baltimore has started to fall in love with RB J.K. Dobbins (who has five straight games with a TD) but after seeing just two second-half carries last week after sustaining a chest injury, the Ravens may have to lean on Jackson even more in Week 17.

The Ravens beat Cincinnati 27-3 back in Week 5 and Jackson was not needed much in the run game. But in the two games against the Bengals last season, the Baltimore QB rushed for 217 yards and two scores versus his division rivals.

We are avoiding Jackson’s rushing total, which sits at a lofty 65.5 yards, and are instead zeroing in on his TD market that is paying plus-money and has hit in three of the last four weeks.

PREDICTION: Lamar Jackson Over 0.5 rushing TDs (+111)

NFL Prop Picks for Thursday

Riding the Chicago Heater

We haven’t been at our strongest late in the year, but one thing that has been cashing for us is anything that has to do with points and the Chicago Bears.

The Bears find themselves in a win-and-in situation when it comes to the playoffs and face a Green Bay team that is giving up 28 points per game on the road this year.

The Chicago offense has been rejuvenated by the second coming of QB Mitch Trubisky. The Bears have topped their team total in five straight games, are averaging 33 points per game since Week 12, and have scored at least 30 points in four straight games for the first time since 1965.

At 22.5, we are getting a great number for this red-hot offense and with the Green Bay road splits, it makes it another must-play. We are expecting a lot of points in this one as Aaron Rodgers will be making a final push for the league’s MVP.

PREDICTION: Chicago Bears team total Over 22.5 (-123)


Lord of the Rams

In one of the most difficult games to handicap this year, a banged-up Kyler Murray will face off against Rams' starting QB John Wolford with starter Jared Goff out. If you thought the Rams’ No. 2 overall defense was tough to play against, imagine trying to move the ball versus a unit that knows they have to win the game to make the postseason.

The Rams went from a three-point favorite to a three-point underdog on the news of Goff not starting. Running backs Darrell Henderson, Cam Akers (doubtful) and WR Cooper Kupp will be out as well. If there was ever a time Aaron Donald and Co. should step up, it’s Sunday against the Cards with their season on the line.

The Rams are allowing just over 14 points per game at home this year as the Under is a perfect 7-0 at SoFi Stadium in 2020. Five of the seven opponents that visited the Rams failed to score more than 20 points, and with Murray’s possible lower-body injury zapping his rushing ability, we love a close game with so much on the line. 

PREDICTION: Arizona Cardinals team total Under 21.5 (-115) 

Looking For Lawrence

Last week, facing a Chicago defense that had given up 116 points in its last four road games, the Jacksonville Jaguars hung just 17 points and made it into the red zone just once all game. 

Receiver D.J. Chark led the team like usual with a 4/62/1 but Jacksonville’s best WR missed practice on Wednesday and is considered questionable for the season finale. Running back James Robinson will also miss the matchup against the Colts.

Indianapolis can clinch the AFC with a win and will be looking to avenge a Week 1 loss to the Jags — their only win through 16 weeks. 

The Colts have played eight games against teams with sub-.500 records and allowed an average of 20 points per game. The Jags will be looking for the No. 1 overall pick which could really affect their offense if the starters sit late in the game.

PREDICTION: Jacksonville Jaguars team total Under 17.5 (-123)


Not-So-Sweet Carolina

The Saints are still hunting for the NFC’s No. 1 seed and a bye in the first round. It will take a win and some luck, but NOLA is just one of a few teams that are playing for something on Sunday.

Back at full strength and coming off a 52-point performance last week, New Orleans' road to the top seed goes through a Carolina team that will be without RBs Christian McCaffrey, Mike Davis and possible WR Robby Anderson

Carolina’s offense has shown flashes of its potential this year, but missing some key playmakers and having nothing to play for is not a spot we want to back them — especially against the Saints’ No. 3 DVOA defense, per Football Outsiders.

The Saints have been one of the best road defenses all year, holding opponents to 18.9 points per game. Carolina has not scored more than 13 points at home versus the Saints since 2016.

This New Orleans defense will be looking to carry Week 17’s performance into a strong playoff push, as this could be the last year with Drew Brees under center. The Saints will not roll over like many teams in Week 17 and could be a serious test for an under-skilled Carolina offense.

PREDICTION: Carolina Panthers team total Under 21.5 (-125)

NFL Week 17 Prop Betting Card

  • Davante Adams Over 26.5 yards longest reception (-114)
  • Ty Montgomery anytime TD (+450) and Taysom Hill anytime TD (+275)
  • D.K. Metcalf Over 5.5 receptions (+110)
  • Andy Isabella anytime TD (+900) and KeeSean Johnson anytime TD (+450)

     - - 

  • Jonathan Taylor Over 83.5 rushing yards (-115)
  • Calvin Ridley Over 87.5 receiving yards (-112)
  • Baltimore Ravens first half -6.5 (-113)
  • Nelson Agholor Over 49.5 receiving yards (-112)

     - - 

  • Wayne Gallman Over 53.5 rushing yards (-113)
  • Dallas Cowboys first half -0.5 (+107)
  • Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 passing TDs (+116)
  • Lamar Jackson Over 0.5 rushing TDs (+111)

     - - 

  • Chicago Bears team total Over 22.5 (-123)
  • Arizona Cardinals team total Under 21.5 (-110) 
  • Jacksonville Jaguars team total Under 17.5 (-123)
  • Carolina Panthers team total Under 21.5 (-125)

Where Can I Find NFL Player Props?

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