A surge in scoring has made Overs one of the best NFL bets in the first four weeks of the 2020 season, with teams combining for an average of 51.4 points per game.
That pace, which is almost six points higher than last year’s scoring rate and 4.6 points above 2013’s record average of 46.8 points per game, has manifested itself in a 36-26-1 Over/Under record – a 58 percent winning clip for Overs.
However, there’s one bet more profitable than playing the Over on full-game totals, and that’s betting Over versus the first-half numbers. First-half Overs are 40-21-2 heading into Week 5, cashing in at an incredible 65.6 percent for fans of derivative lines.
NFL teams are combining for 26.3 points in the first 30 minutes of action this season, producing 51 percent of the total points scored in 2020 in opening halves. That first-half scoring rate has been met with an average first-half Over/Under of 23.25 in the opening four weeks of play – blasting Over that number by more than a field goal.
| Week | Avg 1H O/U | Avg 1H Pts | 1H Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 22.34 | 23.69 | 9-6-1 O/U |
| Week 2 | 22.69 | 27.12 | 10-6 O/U |
| Week 3 | 23.59 | 28.19 | 14-1-1 O/U |
| Week 4 | 24.43 | 26.33 | 7-8 O/U |
First-half Overs really caught fire in Weeks 2 and 3, going 10-6 O/U and 14-1-1 O/U respectively. Week 2 games produced an average of 27.12 points in the first half against an average 1H total of 22.69 (Over by 4.43 points) while Week 3 saw an average of 28.19 points scored in the opening two quarters versus an average 1H total of 23.59 (Over by 4.6 points).
Oddsmakers raised the bar in Week 4, setting a record-high average Over/Under number, which meant first-half totals were also getting a historic bump, jumping to an average Over/Under of 24.43 for those derivative totals. The Week 4 games pumped out 26.33 average first-half points, but the scales tipped to 7-8 Over/Under for those 15 games.
The Week 5 totals are once again the highest NFL bettors have ever seen, with an average full-game Over/Under of 50.25 for those games currently on the board (three Over/Under totals are OTB as of Thursday). The Week 5 first-half totals are coming in at an average Over/Under of 24.54. Given that inflation and last week's cooling results, can these derivative O/U bets stay hot for one more week?
Best first-half Over bets
There are five NFL teams with a perfect 4-0 first-half Over mark entering Week 5: Baltimore, Buffalo, Cleveland, Dallas and the New York Jets. New Orleans is next at 3-0-1 Over/Under in the opening half.
| Team | Ave 1H O/U | Ave 1H Pts (Combined) | 1H Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore | 24.25 | 32.0 | 4-0 O/U |
| Buffalo | 22.25 | 26.25 | 4-0 O/U |
| Cleveland | 23.75 | 33.25 | 4-0 O/U |
| Dallas | 26.5 | 37.25 | 4-0 O/U |
| N.Y. Jets | 20.75 | 25.5 | 4-0 O/U |
| New Orleans | 24.5 | 32.5 | 3-0-1 O/U |
Best first-half Under bets
On the flip of this trend, there are just four teams that have turned profits for the first-half Under: Kansas City, Chicago and New England all at 1-3 O/U 1H. Cincinnati is 1-2-1 O/U in the opening 30 minutes.
| Team | Ave 1H O/U | Ave 1H Pts (Combined) | 1H Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | 21.38 | 19.5 | 1-3 O/U |
| Kansas City | 25.25 | 22.5 | 1-3 O/U |
| New England | 22.38 | 17.5 | 1-3 O/U |
| Cincinnati | 22.25 | 23.25 | 1-2-1 O/U |
Where can I bet on the NFL?
You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.
