Fall is officially here.
The autumnal equinox kicks off sweater season, but for me, it’s prime shopping time for shorts and flip-flops.
Stores are stocking up on warm clothes, which means summer gear gets a major discount. I can load up on breezy clothes for 2027 at a fraction of the original price. Hell, I can even afford to be optimistic and buy some a size down.
I’m taking a similar approach to my Week 3 NFL underdog picks and predictions.
The markets are quickly moving past some teams' early-season stumbles, which means we can buy back those sides at a discount compared to their look-ahead lines from the summer.
Here are my favorite NFL picks getting the points in Week 3.
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 2-4 ATS
NFL Week 3 underdog picks
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Chargers +7.5 at Bills
This Sunday afternoon outing was supposed to be one of the best games of the year.
The Buffalo Bills were -2.5 at home against the visiting Los Angeles Chargers before the Bolts fell out of the “ugly loss tree” and hit every branch on the way down.
Dropping games to Arizona and Las Vegas — on top of Buffalo looking like a world beater — has pumped five points into the Chargers’ spread, which sits as high as +7.5 as of this writing.
There were already edges baked into the original spread, with L.A. drawing a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT) and facing a Bills team with extra days of rest. And yet, oddsmakers hung Buffalo short of a field goal fave.
This reaction to two weeks of football has blown through key numbers of three, six, and seven. I wonder back to Week 1 and how narrow the Bills’ victory was.
Had Houston picked off Josh Allen in the end zone, would we be dealing with -7.5? No, we wouldn’t.
We would also be talking more about how shoddy this Buffalo defense is. The Bills sit near the back in many defensive metrics, including opponent success rate per play and first downs allowed.
Many of the Chargers’ woes are self-inflicted. Penalties and turnovers have swayed results in those opening losses, but let’s not forget Los Angeles is dealing with new coordinators on both offense and defense in 2026.
Fueled by desperation, the Bolts make progress in Week 3. They probably don’t win, but they’re not as bad as everyone believes — at least not +7.5 bad.
Buccaneers +1.5 vs. Vikings
Imagine waiting more than two hours to lose to the Cleveland Browns.
That’s the special flavor of hell the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered in Week 2, with a promising game-winning drive put on ice by thunderstorms late in the fourth quarter. Tampa couldn’t rekindle that momentum, and here we are, with the Buccaneers getting points at home in Week 3.
This matchup with the Minnesota Vikings will be terrifying to watch for anyone who’s ever played quarterback, considering how aggressive these defenses are. I dub this game “The Blitz Bowl”.
Defensive masterminds Todd Bowles and Brian Flores send extra pass rushers more than most, which has me measuring just how the respective QBs will handle the heat.
Baker Mayfield has been solid versus the blitz during this time in Tampa, with an uncanny ability to sneak away from pressure and either make a play with his legs or squeeze in a release pass.
Kyler Murray is expected to be under center after his Vikings debut was cut short by a concussion in Week 1. Unlike Mayfield, Murray hasn’t fared well against blitzes throughout his career and had only 11 full-speed snaps (five dropbacks) in Kevin O’Connell’s offense before getting hurt.
Much like the Chargers, we’re getting Tampa Bay at a discount. It was originally a 1.5-point home favorite on the look-ahead market and sat at that same spread before the results of Week 2.
I’m not the only one buying back the Bucs, either. This line was as high as Tampa +2.5 earlier in the week and kept getting bet down whenever it popped up.
Raiders +3.5 at Saints
Through two games, the New Orleans Saints have the same pace as my aching back on a cold morning: We’re a little slow getting going, but once we’re moving around, we’re alright.
New Orleans has fallen behind 21-0 and 14-3 in matchups with Detroit and Baltimore — rating out among the worst first-half teams — before battling back to cover as underdogs in those outings.
I’m always scouting for teams that play up and down to their level of competition, and the Saints could be that team.
They took the fight to heavyweights like the Lions and Ravens as big road underdogs but could come crashing back to earth against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3 — especially with a letdown looming after the upset over Baltimore.
Although the Raiders’ 2-0 start is about as convincing as an email from a Nigerian prince, Vegas’ defense is getting the nod from the math nerds through two games, rating out as a Top 10 stop unit.
New defensive coordinator Rob Leonard is creating tremendous pressure with his front four (No. 1 pressure rate despite blitzing on only 22% of snaps), collecting eight sacks and 10 QB hits. The Raiders now set their sights on second-year QB Tyler Shough.
Shough surprisingly leads the NFL in passing yards entering Week 3, which has a lot to do with those first-half deficits forcing NOLA to throw at the fourth-highest rate in the league. According to ESPN, Shough’s QB rating through the first three quarters is a dismal 14.3 but soars to 97.7 in the final frame.
His PFF profile doesn’t paint a pretty picture under pressure. As a rookie, Shough was night and day when kept clean vs. under duress, rating 27th among qualifying QBs when pressured. The 2026 season produces a similar split, rating No. 5 when clean but 18th under pressure.
It just so happens that an already stressed New Orleans offensive line will be without starting LT Kelvin Banks for a while due to an ankle injury in Week 2. The Saints' pass protection has already allowed eight sacks and ranks 28th in pass block win rate.
Week 3 underdog combo
Chargers +7.5
Buccaneers +1.5
Raiders +3.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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