There should be plenty of fireworks on Thursday Night Football as two top-tier offenses square off, and our Lions vs. Bills computer picks have pegged lots of Overs to pounce on now.
Let's analyze the mountain of player props on both sides as part of our NFL picks.
Lions vs Bills computer picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
 Lions |
 Bills |
|---|---|
| Jared Goff Over 23.5 passing completions 51.2% |
Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards 55.6% |
| Jahmyr Gibbs Over 80.5 rushing yards 53.5% |
DJ Moore Over 60.5 receiving yards 57.4% |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 78.5 receiving yards 53.5% |
James Cook Over 16.5 receiving yards 53.5% |
| Sam LaPorta Over 43.5 receiving yards 53.5% |
Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 receptions 61.5% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Lions computer picks
Jared Goff Over 23.5 passing completions
Projection: 23.94 completions
This is a tight projection, but the Detroit Lions are also being projected to cover +5.5. Combine that with the high passing volume in an expected shootout, and the runway is there for Jared Goff to get past this number.
🔥 trade Goff passing completions now
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 80.5 rushing yards
Projection: 90.34 yards
Jahmyr Gibbs only cleared this line five times last year, in part because he's so dynamic and used often as a pass-catcher. But last season the Buffalo Bills gave up the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs.
🔥 trade Gibbs rushing yards now
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 76.5 receiving yards
Projection: 89.37 yards
This is an eye-popping projection that gives us 10.9 yards of leeway. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a constant target vacuum who was given a whopping 14 looks in Week 1, and he's fresh off finishing second leaguewide last year at 172.
🔥 Trade St. Brown receiving yards now
Sam LaPorta Over 43.5 receiving yards
Projection: 51.34 yards
We're getting a nice projection gap here too of 7.8 yards on Sam LaPorta. However, some caution might be warranted, as the Bills give up the fewest yards to tight ends last year.
🔥 trade Laporta receiving yards now
Bills computer picks
Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards
Projection: 40.23 yards
Josh Allen averaged 34.1 rushing yards per game last season, and we're getting some nice cushion here with a projection that's 8.73 yards higher.
🔥 trade Allen rushing yards now
DJ Moore Over 60.5 receiving yards
Projection: 69.18 yards
The Detroit Lions gave up the eighth-most receiving yards to wideouts last year. That alone is encouraging here, as is DJ Moore's 100 yards on five catches during his Bills regular-season debut last week.
🔥 trade Moore receiving yards now
James Cook Over 16.5 receiving yards
Projection: 18.17 yards
This projection is a little tighter, but the Thursday Night Football odds show there should be plenty of scoring, with the game getting a total of 54.5. That will give James Cook plenty of opportunities to get involved as a pass-catcher.
🔥 trade cook receiving yards now
Dalton Kincaid Over 3.5 receptions
Projection: 4.10 receptions
Like Cook, Dalton Kincaid should get lots of chances to shine in a likely high-scoring game, and he was targeted six times in the Bills' season opener. It's notable here too that Allen is getting a 32.97 projection for his passing attempts, meaning there will be lots of targets to go around.
🔥 trade Kincaid receptions now
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