Jaguars vs Rams Week 13 Picks and Predictions: Rams Get Back to Business

L.A. has seen its early-season shine fade fading amid a three-game losing streak, but it gets to face one of the league's doormats in Week 13. Is the huge spread too much to cover though? Find out as we break down our NFL picks for Jaguars vs. Rams.

Last Updated: Dec 3, 2021 7:12 PM ET Read Time: 5 min
Aaron Donald Los Angeles Rams NFL
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The Los Angeles Rams are free-falling after a disastrous November but could get the medicine they need to halt that three-game skid when the Jacksonville Jaguars cross the country for a Week 13 matchup inside SoFi Stadium.

Los Angeles SHOULD beat the lowly Jaguars, but will they beat them by two touchdowns? That’s the hard question NFL bettors have to ponder with L.A. lending 13 points to the visitor this Sunday. Jacksonville has also dropped three outings in a row and has just two wins on the year.

Check out our NFL free picks and predictions for Jaguars at Rams on December 5.

Jaguars vs Rams odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Rams opened as 13-point chalk at home and some books went up to -13.5 with early play on Los Angeles. However, that line has come down with injuries popping up for L.A. and moving this as low as -12.5 (-110). This total opened at 48 points and has slid downwards to 47.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Jaguars vs Rams predictions

Predictions made on 11/30/2021 at 3:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Jaguars vs Rams game info

Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Date: Sunday, December 5, 2021
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET

Jaguars at Rams betting preview


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Key injuries

Jaguars: Shaquill Griffin CB (Out), DaVon Hamilton DT (Out), Jacob Hollister TE (Out), K.C. McDermott OT (Out), Jordan Smith LB (Out).
Rams: Tremayne Anchrum OT (Out), Chris Garrett LB (Out), JuJu Hugles S (Out), Alaric Jackson OT (Out), David Long CB (Out), Bryce Perkins QB (Out), Buddy Howell RB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 10-1 in Jaguars’ last 11 games as underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Rams.

Jaguars vs Rams picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

The Rams’ downfall seems so dramatic due to the fact L.A. appeared invincible for the first two months of the season. A three-game losing slump takes the shine off any team, and road losses at Lambeau and to divisional rival San Francisco are forgivable. 

Granted, the Rams were slim road favorites in each of those outings and Los Angeles really hasn’t beaten a quality team since taking down Tampa Bay back in Week 3. Now, bookies are stacking the points in front of L.A., which hasn’t covered a spread since mid-October.

A pile of chalk this high carries with it plenty of implied probability, with Los Angeles boasting a win percentage of 87 percent in Week 13. That means the Rams will be up for most of the game and not falling behind quickly, as they have in each of those previous three defeats. Los Angeles trailed by at least 10 points in the second quarter in that trio of contests, but those games were against teams much stronger than Jacksonville.

Those early deficits have put extra pressure on QB Matthew Stafford, who obviously isn’t healthy. He’s gone from quarterback god and MVP front-runner to a garbage passer rating of 77.1 during this three-game skid, with five interceptions and an EPA per dropback of -0.220 – third-lowest in the NFL since Week 9. Stafford may also be missing new WR Odell Beckham Jr. and the support of RB Darrell Henderson, who are both questionable.

However, Stafford doesn’t have to regain that early-season form to edge the Jaguars, especially if the Rams defense can back him up this Sunday. Jacksonville hasn’t cracked the 20-point plateau in its last five outings and will lean on rookie QB Trevor Lawrence – especially in the second half – to avoid catastrophe against a talented Los Angeles secondary and a pass rush that has claimed 30 sacks on the season.

If you do like the Rams, shop around for the best number. Some books have a soft -13 up or have already jumped to -12.5 flat.

Prediction: Los Angeles -12.5 (-110)

The Jaguars are far from an instant fix for Los Angeles’ offense and have kept scores relatively low for opponents in their last four games, allowing an average of just 20 points per outing in that span. 

Since the Week 7 bye, Jacksonville has been on the right side of the Defensive DVOA percentages in every game but last week’s loss to Atlanta, pumping out a string of five straight Unders during that stretch.  

The Rams offense has had trouble consistently moving the chains outside of big plays and managed only 15 and 16 first downs in the road losses at Green Bay and San Francisco. Without a solid rushing attack – and with Henderson dinged up - L.A. finds itself in longer third-down situations and has converted at less than 29 percent on those spots during this skid.

Without the threat of the ground game (21st in EPA per rush over last three), the Jaguars defense can protect against the deep ball and keep everything in front of it. Jacksonville ranks dead last in Pass Defense DVOA but faces a shell of this once mighty passing attack.

Prediction: Under 48 (-110)

Rams tight end Tyler Higbee has been quiet, with only four catches on 10 targets for 23 total yards in the losses to the Packers and Niners, but he takes on a Jaguars defense allowing 11.29 yards per catch to tight ends and more than 55 yards per game to the position.

The passing game could not only be missing Beckham Jr. but with Henderson slowed, Stafford may have to find another top option in the short passing game.

Higbee has also played his best ball inside SoFi Stadium, averaging 10 yards per reception and totaling 241 yards compared to just 106 on the road despite playing one more game away from home.

Pick: Tyler Higbee Over 37.5 receiving yards (-115)

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