France vs Spain Goal Scorer Picks: Olise Finally Finds the Net

Sam Farley - Contributor at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst 10+ years betting experience
Updated: Jul 13, 2026 , 09:10 AM ET • 4 min read

Michael Olise's quality goes way beyond scoring, but France's semifinal fight against Spain might be the perfect opportunity for him to net his first World Cup goal.

Michael Olise France World Cup
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Michael Olise during France's quarterfinal match against Morocco.

We have a huge encounter in store at the AT&T Stadium in Dallas with France and Spain battling off for a space in Sunday’s showpiece final. Some of the biggest stars on the planet, including the big two, who each play for one side of the El Clasico.

There’s Lamine Yamal for Spain and Barcelona and opposing him is Real Madrid and France’s Kylian Mbappe. Mbappe is in a battle in the Golden Boot odds, with Lionel Messi and Harry Kane both playing the following day. 

If you’re looking for a full side and total breakdown, then make sure you’ve checked out our France vs. Spain predictions and World Cup picks at Kalshi, one of our top prediction market apps.

France vs Spain props goal scorer picks

Player Kalshi
Probability
American
Odds
France Michael Olise 20% +400
Spain Lamine Yamal 26% +285

Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0–100%), representing the market's estimated probability of an event occurring.

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My France vs Spain props and goal scorer predictions

France  Michael Olise

Kalshi probability: 20%

Kylian Mbappe is the obvious choice, after all France’s talisman leads France’s goalscoring charts with eight goals in just six games. There have also been goals for the rest of France’s attack: Ousmane Dembele, Bradley Barcola, and Desire Doue. However, one man hasn’t scored, and that’s Michael Olise, who came into this tournament expected to be a huge star.

The reality is that Olise has been spectacular; he just hasn’t had his breakout goal-scoring moment yet. That's surely coming soon. He trails only Mbappe in shots, with an average of 3.14 per 90 minutes played. This is a player with positive regression coming, and Spain provide the perfect opposition to do that.

The Spanish backline will be rightly focused on Mbappe, while the wide talents of France will be busy with Dembele and Doue. That should mean that Olise, in the No. 10 position will be matched up against Rodri, who still doesn’t look back to his Ballon d'Or best. 

Olise is at his best when running at defenders and using his array of tricks to create space. In truth, they’ve not faced anyone with Olise’s skillset yet and the running of the other attackers should be enough to create and spaces for him to get shots off. We’ve seen how dangerous he can be in front of goal for Bayern Munich all season, and it’s now time for that to translate to the World Cup stage.

Spain  Lamine Yamal

Kalshi probability: 26%

It’s not the boldest take, but if you’re looking for a Spanish goal scorer, then it has to be Lamine Yamal, despite the Barca man only netting once. Despite playing fewer minutes than some of his teammates, as he worked his way back from an injury before the tournament, he still leads the squad in both shots and shots on target.

He’s also up against Lucas Digne, who is arguably the weak link in France’s starting lineup. The Aston Villa man has racked up 62 caps for Les Bleus, but he’s not a truly top-level defender, and at 32 years old, he doesn’t have the speed to keep up with Yamal in full flight. 

We’ve seen time and again that Yamal is at his best when he’s cutting in onto his left foot and attacking the space between fullback and central defender. Spain haven’t really hit their full stride yet, and neither has Yamal. It's scary to know there's plenty more in the tank. 

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Sam Farley
Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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