49ers vs Seahawks Week 13 Picks and Predictions: Seattle Stays Alive

NFC West rivals heading in opposite directions duel in the Emerald City when the San Francisco 49ers visit the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13.

The Niners bring a three-game winning streak into Lumen Field, where the Seahawks are aiming to snap a three-game losing skid, still stinging from a fresh loss at Washington on Monday night. Seattle is currently a 3.5-point underdog – just the 12th time the Seahawks have been home dogs in the regular season since Russell Wilson showed up in 2012.

Get our free NFL picks and predictions for 49ers at Seahawks on December 5. 

49ers vs Seahawks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The lookahead line had Seattle installed as a 2.5-point underdog before a dud of a performance on Monday night. That spread officially reopened at San Francisco -3 and quickly jump through the key number of a field goal to -3.5. The total opened at 46.5 points and has slimmed to 45.5 as of Wednesday.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

49ers vs Seahawks predictions

• Prediction: Seahawks +3.5 (-115)
• Prediction: Over 45.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Russell Wilson Over 12.5 rushing yards (-118)

Predictions made on 12/1/2021 at 4:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

49ers vs Seahawks game info

• Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, WA
• Date: Sunday, December 5, 2021
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

49ers at Seahawks betting preview

Weather

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Key injuries

49ers: Marcell Harris LB (Out), Fred Warner LB (Out), Dre Greenlaw LB (Out), Maurice Hurst DT (Out), Deebo Samuel WR (Out), Colton McKivitz OG (Out), Trey Sermon RB (Out), Tarvarius Moore S (Out).
Seahawks: Chris Carson RB (Out), Alex Collins RB (Out), Damien Lewis G (Doubtful), Jacob Eason QB (Out), Phil Haynes OG (Out), Robert Nkemdiche DT (Out), Nigel Warrior S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Seahawks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Seahawks.

49ers vs Seahawks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Seahawks weren’t supposed to fall flat on their faces when Wilson returned from his gruesome finger injury, but Seattle has pretty much played itself out of a postseason spot and Wilson could have football’s version of the “yips”. He’s completing less than 56 percent of his throws over the past three outings, including some botched “routine” plays against Washington on Monday night.

Wilson, who has long been one of the more accurate passers in the NFL, was able to grab big gains on deeper shots and did perform better in the fourth quarter of Monday’s contest. He would love to have some of those errant throws back and doesn’t have to wait long to redeem himself with Seattle working on a short week.

But while the Seahawks are still feeling the aches and pains on that quick turnaround, San Francisco is the team dealing with injury issues. The 49ers' defense could be extremely thin at linebacker, as starters Dre Greenlaw (questionable) and Fred Warner (doubtful) are among the wounded, as is Marcell Harris (concussion protocol). 

That shouldn’t impact how the Niners play Wilson much – they don’t blitz often and could roll out more nickel sets with K’Waun Williams – but Seattle’s ground game may finally find the traction it’s lacked during this skid against a softened front seven. That will help out a lot on third downs, the bane of Seattle's existence this season (32.5% conversion rate – lowest in the NFL).

Injuries are also hurting the 49ers on offense, where Swiss Army knife WR Deebo Samuel is expected to miss Week 13. Samuel has been vital to San Francisco’s success, most notably the last three games in which he’s been used primarily as a rusher. Samuel has picked up 181 total yards rushing on 19 carries – 9.5 yards per run – as well as with four touchdowns on the ground. 

Those gains have helped the Niners control tempo and time of possession, dominating the football for an average TOP of 38:10 in that span. San Francisco could also be down RBs Trey Sermon and JaMycal Hasty (both questionable) and faces a Seahawks defense that has been very stingy on the ground, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry over their last three outings.

The trajectory of these two teams makes it hard to lean into the Seahawks, who are 7-4 ATS as rare home underdogs in the regular season since 2012. However, divisional games can be a different beast and Seattle is 14-5-1 ATS in the last 20 matchups between these NFC West foes. The Seahawks' biggest problem is Wilson, which is a pretty easy problem to solve for one of the best QBs in the league.

Prediction: Seahawks +3.5 (-115)

Over/Under analysis

The Niners may not have the same relentless rushing attack with all those capable ball carriers hurt, but this offense is still a methodical machine that runs the fifth slowest offensive pace in the NFL (29.36 seconds per play). 

That keeps opposing defenses on the field for extended periods and no stop unit has logged more minutes over the past three games than Seattle. The Seahawks' defense has played an average of 40:23 minutes over the last three contests, including 41:40 on Monday, and may very well hit a breaking point at some point on Sunday afternoon.

Both sides are sound against the run, so this game could come down to the quarterbacks. Wilson is always good for a couple of home runs and while Jimmy Garoppolo may only be throwing the ball on 36 percent of snaps during this winning streak, those passes are picking up an average of 8.8 yards per attempt. 

These teams played just Under a 52-point total in a 28-21 Seattle victory in Week 4 and the Week 13 number is well below that, dipping to 45.5 points with the Seahawks’ scoring struggles. But with Russ back home and eager to correct course, we’re predicting more points.

Prediction: Over 45.5 (-110)

Best bet

Wilson may have to be a one-man army out there on Sunday, including making up for the lack of a run game by breaking off some gains on the ground.

San Francisco has allowed the most rushing yards to quarterbacks this season (298) with an average of just under six yards per scramble. On top of that, the linebacker corps is thin and San Francisco could put out more nickel and dime sets, protecting against the pass but opening up space for Wilson to gain second-level yards on his runs.

Wilson hasn’t been as mobile as in past seasons, with his biggest rushing effort a 32-yard day against Green Bay. However, he did muster 26 yards on four takes (and a TD) versus the Niners in October and rushed for 29 and 23 yards in matchups with San Francisco in 2020.

Pick: Russell Wilson Over 12.5 rushing yards (-118)

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