The first semifinal of the World Cup 2026 features the offensive firepower of France against the defensively stout Spain at 3 p.m. ET (FOX).
Kylian Mbappe and Les Bleus are looking to return to the World Cup final for the third straight event, while La Roja, led by Lamine Yamal, are trying to return to the final for the first time since winning 16 years ago.
To help you with your France vs. Spain predictions ahead of this clash at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, we've put together our France vs. Spain cheat sheet to cover this semifinal matchup from every angle ahead of kickoff.
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France vs Spain match probabilities
| Market |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| To advance |  59% |
-144 |
 41% |
+144 | |
| To win in regulation | 42% |
+138 |
| Tie - 30% | +233 | |
| 29% |
+245 |
Who is most likely to score a goal in France vs Spain?
| Player | Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe |
46% | +117 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal |
29% | +245 |
| Ousmane Dembele |
26% | +285 |
| Lamine Yamal |
25% | +300 |
| Michael Olise |
19% | +426 |
France vs Spain match props
| Player | Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 61% | -156 |
| First team to score | 55% |
-270 |
| 41% |
+144 | |
| Total corners: 10+ | Yes - 51% | -104 |
| No - 50% | +100 | |
| corners: 5+ |
53% | -113 |
| corners: 5+ |
53% | -113 |
France vs Spain expert picks
| Player | Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Team Total Over 1.5 goals |
45% | +122 |
| Kylian Mbappe to score a goal |
46% | +117 |
| Over 2.5 goals |
50% | +100 |
| Michael Olise to score a goal |
19% | +426 |
| 12+ corners |
34% | +194 |
Covers Intel: France vs Spain
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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