There should be little separating France and Spain at Dallas Stadium, but nice returns await even in a game that's so close to call.
Watch out for these three props, which could all bring solid pays from Kalshi, one of our top prediction market apps, on Tuesday, July 14.
Here are my France vs. Spain props and World Cup picks for the first World Cup semifinal.
We've got a packed day with our full France vs. Spain predictions waiting.
France vs Spain props
| Player |  Probability |
American Odds |
|---|---|---|
 / 12+ corners |
34% | +194 |
| Pedri starts |
58% | -138 |
| Olise 1+ assists |
29% | +245 |
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My France vs Spain prop picks
/ 12+ corners
Both France and Spain have won plenty of corners since the start of the tournament.
France have taken 59 in six games, an average of almost 10, with Spain at 51, averaging 8.5.
Both teams boast incredible attacking players, so there should be plenty of action around both penalty areas, easily resulting in a high number of corners.
The importance of set pieces in a game expected to be as tight as this one only strengthens that case, so I'm relying on that argument as well. The 12+ corners prediction at Kalshi pays too well to ignore.
Pedri starts for Spain
Pedri has been involved in all six of La Roja's matches up through the quarterfinals. He was benched against Belgium, but came on in the second half, as Luis de la Fuente was trying to break the Red Devils' defense.
Asked about why Pedri, one of the biggest stars in the team, was left outside the starting 11, De la Fuente was not short on words, saying it's not form, but tactics that influenced the decision:
"We have Rodri or Zubimendi, who influence the behavior of the player next to them. Pedri cannot play the same way he does for Barcelona because we demand something different from him and have another approach to our footballing philosophy. Thanks to his ability and talent, Pedri can play as a ‘6’, ‘8’ or ’10'. I have spoken with him, and he feels very comfortable when he has a final pass, a shot and the ability to make runs into the box. We try to make each player feel comfortable so they can develop their footballing potential."
It's those exact skills that should recommend Pedri to start, as De la Fuente will surely look for volume and fluency from his midfield.
Michael Olise 1+ assists
Michael Olise has started all six of France's games at the World Cup.
Despite not scoring, he has no fewer than six assists to his name. He provided his first two in France's win over Senegal, followed by two against Iraq, and two more vs. Sweden.
France have shown tremendous attacking quality throughout the tournament, and Olise has been one of the driving forces behind it. He has starred alongside Kylian Mbappe, and he will make a difference against Spain as well.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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