Giants vs Rams Touchdown Picks & First TD Prediction: Monday Night Football

Josh Inglis - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Josh Inglis • Betting Analyst 13+ years betting experience
Updated: Sep 21, 2026 , 10:00 AM ET • 4 min read

Jaxson Dart is still running the ball at a high rate, and Blake Corum might lead the Rams in rushing volume.

Blake Corum Los Angeles Rams NFL
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Los Angeles Rams running back Blake Corum (22) celebrates after scoring a touchdown

It's the end of Week 2, and the New York Giants might be live tonight with all the travel and injuries befalling the Los Angeles Rams ahead of Monday Night Football. 

There is plenty of value in my Giants vs. Rams touchdown picks, as oddsmakers aren't in love with the G-Men, and the Rams might need a new offensive leader if Puka Nacua is out (and Blake Corum might fit that bill).

In addition to my favorite TD predictions for Monday, Sept. 21, I have a full set of Giants vs. Rams predictions waiting.

Best Giants vs Rams anytime touchdown picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Pick Kalshi
Probability
 Colts Isaiah Likely  25%
 Chiefs Blake Corum 32%
 Colts Jaxson Dart 8%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Giants touchdown pick: Isaiah Likely

Kalshi probability: 25%

Isaiah Likely was the cash converter last week and was a huge part of the New York Giants' offense, keeping pace with Malik Nabers in terms of usage and volume.

Despite that, his TD price has not moved, which I don't mind at all. I understand it's the Los Angeles Rams, but they are just getting back from Australia and looked awful defending the pass in Week 1.

Likely had four targets in the red zone and finished with two TDs. No other TE or WR had more than three RZ catches in Week 1. Likely is the No. 2 in this passing game and is a green light for a TD buy at 3x or better right now.

Rams touchdown pick: Blake Corum

Kalshi probability: 32%

The Rams had one of the worst PROEs in Week 1 despite playing from a trailing game script. Now, potentially without Puka Nacua, expect more heavy sets and running.

Blake Corum played just 13 offensive snaps, but he also had 10 carries for 54 yards and outpaced Kyren Williams, who is still shorter than 50% for a TD. These two should be closer than they currently are, and despite Williams getting the red-zone work last week, Corum has poached plenty of TDs inside the 20.

This is a New York red-zone defense that allowed Dallas to score three times on three attempts last week.

First touchdown scorer pick: Jaxson Dart

Kalshi probability: 8%

Give me Jaxson Dart at better than 10x under the Monday night lights. He was one of two QBs with double-digit carries last week, with a great mix of designed runs and scrambles. He's not going to change how he runs, and now that he has Nabers and even Likely, there's more respect for the pass-catchers, which gives him less attention in the red zone.

The Rams gave up two TDs on three red-zone attempts last week, while the Giants couldn't have been more impressive inside the 20, going 4-for-4. I love Dart's Over rushing yards, and this might be the best 10x-or-better first TD option tonight.

Giants vs Rams touchdown combo

Mathew Stafford

Jaxson Dart

I'm not changing my MNF approach in the TD combo spot, and that's getting both QBs to score. It's my weekly lottery.

Last week, Matthew Stafford had his chance to cash a monster but failed to score on a fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line. At least I know the play is in the playbook.

My love for Dart is not hidden. He'll get his carries, and getting someone like him in the double-QB MNF TD combo is something that makes me happy.

Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
  • TD picks: 5-9, +7.5 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Josh Inglis - Covers
Betting Analyst

Josh Inglis is a rising star in the sports betting content space, specializing in MLB, NHL, and NFL markets. Since joining Covers in 2019, Josh has focused his betting expertise on player props and derivative markets, finding them easier for beating the closing line compared to sides and totals. His engaging analysis and content have been showcased on major networks such as TSN, VSiN, BetMGM Network, and NBC. Josh is a prolific bettor, tracking over 2,500 bets annually and he consistently shares his results through monthly transparency reports. At Covers, he is renowned for his MLB release shows and NHL Puck Props, which are integral parts of the site's live content lineup.

Before his tenure at Covers, Josh spent a decade teaching while pursuing sports media on the side. He has also contributed to live global senior-level broadcasts for the WBSC.

Josh advocates for sports bettors to bet early, emphasizing the importance of securing better numbers by beating the public to the market. He also advises having multiple sportsbook accounts to ensure access to the best possible odds.

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