How do you price a market when the offense loses its MVP, its backup, and its identity in the span of a week?
With Lamar Jackson sidelined and an undrafted rookie under center, the market has completely crashed on this scoring ceiling. Trading as heavy home underdogs on Thursday night with an implied team total barely scraping 15 points, this offense isn't built for a shootout.
If you are analyzing Ravens anytime touchdown scorer props, ignore the high-ceiling perimeter routes. When a third-string quarterback faces a ferocious pass rush, the playbook shrinks to pure survival. The only viable contracts live directly around the line of scrimmage: checkdowns, designed screens, and heavy-package goal-line plunges where volume and necessity outweigh aesthetics.
Top Baltimore Ravens anytime touchdown predictions
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| Player | Position |  Probability |
Index Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | RB | 42% | 60 |
| Zay Flowers | WR | 20% | 55 |
| Mark Andrews | TE | 15% | 51 |
| Baltimore Ravens D/ST | D/ST | 12% | 47 |
| Rashod Bateman | WR | 9% | 44 |
| Joe Fagnano | QB | 7% | 41 |
| Josh Cuevas | TE | 5% | 39 |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | 10% | 38 |
| Justice Hill | RB | 15% | 36 |
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Derrick Henry anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Henry owns 41 red-zone opportunities, including 40 carries, and has scored eight times. He has also handled 16 carries inside the 5, representing 84% of Baltimore’s attempts from that range. Baltimore’s backfield report assigns him 93% of red-zone work and 96% inside the 10.
The matchup: Jacksonville’s interior front and downhill linebackers are the difficult part of this matchup; the defense ranks third in red-zone touchdown rate allowed. Henry’s clearest route is a condensed-set power run after a turnover or defensive penalty creates a snap inside the 5.
The value: The submitted Kalshi price of 42% implies a 42% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 38%, creating a negative gap of 4 percentage points. The number is too short; it becomes difficult to support above 40% unless Baltimore projects for more than two touchdowns or Fagnano repeatedly moves the offense inside the 10.
Zay Flowers anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Flowers leads Baltimore with 58 targets and recently commanded a 26% target share while playing 84% of snaps. He also received two red-zone opportunities over the latest two-game window, making him the offense’s most stable receiving option.
The matchup: Jacksonville can crowd the short middle with zone defenders, but Flowers’ motion and slot releases can manufacture free access. His best scoring route is a quick crosser, option route or screen that lets him create after the catch before the safeties close.
The value: The submitted Kalshi price of 20% implies a 20% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 19%, creating a negative gap of 1 percentage point. The number is too short; 20% is defensible only if the emergency quarterback continues to funnel throws toward designed first reads.
Mark Andrews anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Andrews has 41 season targets, but his recent target share has fallen to 14% from 21% and his snap share to 57%. Two recent red-zone opportunities preserve touchdown relevance, although the route volume is no longer automatic.
The matchup: The Jaguars’ linebackers and safeties close the seams well near the goal line. Andrews can still benefit from play action because Jacksonville must respect Henry, but additional protection duties would remove precisely the routes that justify this wager.
The value: The submitted Kalshi price of 15% implies a 15% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 14%, creating a negative gap of 1 percentage point. The number is too short; the price is acceptable near 14% only if Andrews runs routes rather than staying attached as protection for Fagnano.
Baltimore Ravens D/ST anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Baltimore’s defense has allowed touchdowns on 68% of opponent red-zone trips and has not generated a red-zone turnover in the tracked sample. The anytime market therefore needs a defensive or return score rather than an ordinary stop.
The matchup: Jacksonville has produced top-three offensive EPA per play and has been efficient against the blitz, reducing the appeal of Baltimore’s 33% pressure rate. The realistic scoring route is a tipped interception or strip-sack when Trevor Lawrence holds the ball against a simulated pressure.
The value: The submitted Kalshi price of 12% implies a 12% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 9%, creating a negative gap of 3 percentage points. The number is too short; 12% asks too much from a defense facing an efficient offense, even with Nate Wiggins potentially available.
Rashod Bateman anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Bateman has 29 targets, but his recent share has slipped to 12% and he recorded no red-zone opportunity in the latest two-game sample. His 23% air-yard share is more useful for explosive plays than for repeatable close-range scoring.
The matchup: Bateman will work primarily against Jacksonville’s outside zone responsibilities. A touchdown most plausibly comes on a boundary go route or deep-over concept after play action draws the safety toward Henry.
The value: The submitted Kalshi price of 9% implies a 9% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 7%, creating a negative gap of 2 percentage points. The number is too short; the discount does not fully compensate for a low-volume role paired with an inexperienced quarterback.
Joe Fagnano anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Fagnano has only two recorded carries and is expected to make his first NFL start while managing an ankle injury. Baltimore’s normal quarterback rushing and sneak equity cannot simply be transferred from Lamar Jackson to the rookie.
The matchup: Jacksonville’s pressure disguises can create scramble lanes, but they can also force hurried throws before Fagnano reaches the goal line. His narrow touchdown path is a broken-play scramble or sneak after Henry is stopped inches short.
The value: The submitted Kalshi price of 7% implies a 7% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 5%, creating a negative gap of 2 percentage points. The number is too short; the price is too short unless Baltimore confirms that Fagnano will handle sneaks and unrestricted movement.
Josh Cuevas anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Cuevas has 13 targets and his recent share has risen to 11%, but he remains behind Andrews in both routes and designed scoring work. His usage is more encouraging than the market’s deepest long shots, though still thin.
The matchup: A multi-tight-end formation could isolate Cuevas against a linebacker releasing late into the flat. The same personnel can also turn him into an edge blocker for Henry, making route participation the essential uncertainty.
The value: The submitted Kalshi price of 5% implies a 5% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 4%, creating a negative gap of 1 percentage point. The number is too short; 5% is only reasonable if Baltimore uses him as the leaking receiver from heavy personnel rather than as a sixth blocker.
Ja'Kobi Lane anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Lane has 14 targets, with a recent 12% share that is six points above his earlier level. The upward movement is useful, but he still lacks the sustained route and red-zone evidence of Flowers or Andrews.
The matchup: His size gives him a potential back-shoulder role against a boundary corner without requiring Fagnano to hold the ball. Jacksonville’s red-zone zone coverage, however, can bracket that throw with underneath and safety help.
The value: The submitted Kalshi price of 10% implies a 10% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 6%, creating a negative gap of 4 percentage points. The number is too short; the price would become interesting closer to 6% unless his snap share rises materially.
Justice Hill anytime TD odds & analysis
The metric: Hill has 25 targets and 24 carries, but Baltimore assigns Henry 93% of its red-zone backfield work. Hill’s role is concentrated on third downs and two-minute situations rather than at the goal line.
The matchup: Jacksonville’s pressure can generate checkdowns and screens, which is Hill’s best route to a score in a trailing script. That requires him to beat pursuit in space because Henry remains overwhelmingly favored for carries inside the 10.
The value: The submitted Kalshi price of 15% implies a 15% scoring probability. The working fair estimate is approximately 8%, creating a negative gap of 7 percentage points. The number is too short; 15% is substantially too short unless game conditions remove Henry or produce unusually heavy receiving usage.
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Game script & betting context
Baltimore carries an implied total of approximately 15 points within a 40-point environment. As a 10-point underdog, the likeliest script forces Fagnano to throw more than Baltimore would prefer. That raises target volume for Zay Flowers and the tight ends but reduces the number of comfortable, late-game Derrick Henry carries. Jacksonville has allowed touchdowns on only 41% of opponent red-zone possessions, so Baltimore needs either a short field or a rare explosive play. The clear swing factor is whether Fagnano can protect the football while playing through his ankle issue.
For analysis across the full slate, see our NFL Week 9 anytime touchdown predictions.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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