NFL Week 3 kicks off at Lambeau Field, where the Green Bay Packers welcome the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football.
Both teams look different than last week, which has the markets moving for our Falcons vs. Packers moneyline pick.
For more analysis, head over to our complete Falcons vs. Packers predictions.
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Falcons vs. Packers moneyline odds and pick
Packers
Falcons — PickPercentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Game overview
Date: Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Stadium: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
TV: Prime Video
Broadcast Team: Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit, Kaylee Hartung
The case for the Packers moneyline
The Green Bay Packers finally have the home field edge on this short week after opening with their first two games on the road. Green Bay is strong versus the rush, rating Top 10 in many run stop metrics, including No. 2 in opponent success rate per handoff. Bottling up Bijan Robinson and putting pressure on Michael Penix Jr. is the key to victory.
The case for the Falcons moneyline
The QB situation can’t get any worse for the Atlanta Falcons. Penix gives the passing attack a lift on TNF. The Falcons defense also faces a Packers offense looking like Swiss cheese, considering all the injuries. Atlanta’s blitz-heavy schemes test a hurting Green Bay offensive line and can keep things close at Lambeau.
Falcons vs. Packers moneyline pick and confidence level
Atlanta’s quarterback quandary has made this team look bad in the opening two weeks. However, Penix is an improvement under center and this rushing attack with Robinson and Robinson can keep things simple on the short week. Green Bay’s protection will struggle against an aggressive Atlanta pass rush. I see value in the road underdog to win outright.
Pick: Falcons 31%
Confidence: 🟡 Lean
COVERS INTEL: Offensive linemen Aaron Banks and Zach Bako-Bewele are out for the Packers tonight. Green Bay is already dead last in pass block win rate at ESPN and faces a Falcons scheme blitzing at the second-highest rate.What are prediction markets?
A prediction market allows you to buy and sell shares on the outcome of a future event. Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets. Most prediction market apps allow users to "buy an outcome" for between 1 cent and $1.
The $1.00 rule: The foundation of prediction markets
The difference between sportsbook and prediction market pricing isn't actually that difficult. In fact, you can make a compelling case that American odds are more challenging for beginners to understand than prediction markets and their $1.00 foundation.
Unlike a traditional bet where you wager a specific amount to win a profit, NFL prediction markets operate on a binary contract system.
- The Winning Side: Always settles at $1.00
- The Losing Side: Always settles at $0.00
The price of a "Yes" contract is directly related to the aggregate belief about the probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract for the Chicago Bears to beat the Detroit Lions is trading at $0.51, the market believes they have a 51% chance of victory.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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