The Portland Trail Blazers are back to the drawing board after two straight losses, but my Thunder vs. Trail Blazers prediction likes a rested and retooled home side to squeeze OKC after allowing 124 and 125 points to the Lakers and Spurs, respectively — two of the top offenses in the NBA.
While the Thunder roll into town as short favorites Tuesday, their attack has been dulled by early-season injuries. Read on for my full analysis and NBA picks for Nov. 10.
TOP PICK
Thunder vs Trail Blazers prediction: Under 224.5
Before getting blown away by Los Angeles and San Antonio, the Portland Trail Blazers had built their surprise start to the season on the foundations of a Top 10 defense.
The Blazers were No. 8 in advanced defensive rating while checking their first seven foes to less than 111 points per game on a collective 44.7% shooting.
Portland has been off since Saturday, giving head coach Micah Nori time to review film and tighten the bolts on this defense in practice. The Trail Blazers have been excellent at clogging up the key while also not allowing foes to fire from the 3-point arc.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have sputtered out of the gates, with their offense sliding well back of the franchise's usual standards. Injuries to the starting lineup have left OKC to really lean on its defense, resulting in a 3-7 Over/Under record to open the year.
I like the Under 224.5 and would go below the total all the way to 222.5 O/U.
COVERS INTEL: Neither defense gives up easy looks at the rim. OKC (36.4) and Portland (45.3) are both in the Top 8 in points in the paint allowed and sit No. 2 and No. 5 in opponent field goal frequency within six feet of the basket.
Thunder vs Trail Blazers combo
With two teams leaning on their defenses, there won't be any easy buckets between the Thunder and Blazers tonight. Kenrich Williams continues to step up for OKC's offense, with projections flirting with 10 points. Damian Lillard keeps the kickouts coming, hitting open shooters for as many as six assists.
Thunder vs Trail Blazers combo
- Under 224.5
- Kenrich Williams Over 7.5 points
- Damian Lillard Over 3.5 assists
Thunder vs Trail Blazers player props
Thunder player prop: Kenrich Williams Over 7.5 points
The Thunder are desperate for someone to step up and help Shai Gilgeous-Alexander with the scoring load.
Forward Williams has been doing that since being pushed into the starting rotation due to injuries.
He posted 11, 12, and 13 points in a three-game span, with his floor time climbing as high as 31 minutes before blowout wins in the past two outings. Williams logged just 19 and 23 minutes in those one-sided games, finishing with four and nine points.
Given the game script for tonight, Oklahoma City will be in a tighter fight. Williams will log more action and get more touches.
His projections all sit north of eight points with a ceiling of 9.8 versus Portland.
Trail Blazers player prop: Damian Lillard Over 3.5 assists
Since losing fellow guard Ja Morant to injury, Portland point guard Lillard has had to up his playmaking.
He's dished out four or more assists in the five games since Morant went down, including seven helpers in the loss to San Antonio last time out.
Lillard has been more aggressive handling the basketball with Morant out, upping his drives from 11.5 in the first four games to an average 14.0 in the past five outings. That's powered the Trail Blazers' spot-up offense, with Lillard collapsing the defense and kicking out to shooters on the wing.
Portland ranks as the top spot-up attack in the league (35.1 ppg), while Oklahoma City has had issues stopping those sets, giving up the fifth most points to spot-up shooters (31.5).
Lillard's assist forecasts all come in above four dimes, with a ceiling of 5.6 helpers. My number boils down to 4.9 assists from "Dame Time" tonight.
- Top picks: 0-2, -2.0 units
- Combos: 0-2, -2.0 units
- Props: 2-1, +0.74 units
Thunder vs Trail Blazers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Thunder -2.5 | Trail Blazers +2.5
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
- Moneyline: Thunder 55% | Trail Blazers 46%
Check the latest NBA odds before tonight’s Thunder vs. Trail Blazers matchup.
Thunder vs Trail Blazers trend
The Trail Blazers are 20-29 Over/Under (59% Unders) as an underdog going back to last season. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Thunder vs Trail Blazers
| Location | Moda Center, Portland, Ore. |
| Date | Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026 |
| Tip off | 11 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC/Peacock |
Thunder vs Trail Blazers latest injuries
Check out our NBA injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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