My Falcons vs. Packers prediction anticipates more frustration than fireworks tonight, with the total at 44.5 on Thursday Night Football.
The Falcons are starting Michael Penix Jr. for the first time this season, hoping he can lead Atlanta to its first win (and first red-zone visit) of the season against the Packers.
Meanwhile, one of the NFL’s top playmakers stands out for my NFL picks as Green Bay is favored by 6.5 points ahead of kickoff on Thursday, Sept. 24 at 8:15 p.m. ET.
For more on this prime-time clash, check out our Falcons vs. Packers props and Falcons vs. Packers touchdown picks.
TOP Pick
Falcons vs Packers prediction: Under 44.5
Michael Penix Jr. improves an Atlanta Falcons offense that hasn’t reached the red zone, but upgrading from Cooper Rush isn’t exactly a high bar. Atlanta averaged just 20.6 points in Penix’s nine starts last season — barely above Miami’s 25th-ranked 20.4 — and only 16 points per game in five road starts, where his stats fell off a cliff. Good luck at Lambeau in prime time.
The Green Bay Packers have problems, too. Jordan Love is completing just 52.1% of his passes, Jayden Reed was carted off vs. the Jets on Sunday, and the offensive line is hurting on a short week.
The defenses offer some positives, though. Both rank inside the top nine in yards per play allowed while ranking second and third in yards per rush attempt allowed. That could create some challenging third-down attempts for offenses ranked 29th and 32nd in third-down conversion rate.
COVERS INTEL: Last season, Penix had a 76.7 QB rating on the road compared to 104.7 at home.
Falcons vs Packers combo
Atlanta doesn’t need to suddenly become elite to cover +6.5 against a struggling, injured Packers offense that managed just 199 total yards last week. The Falcons’ defense can keep this close, while getting Bijan Robinson more involved should be priority No. 1.
He opened the season with eight catches for 90 yards and averaged 53.7 receiving yards in Penix’s starts last season, making 40+ a reasonable ask. With Green Bay tough against the run, short passes offer another way to feed Atlanta’s best playmaker.
Add a Bijan touchdown, and we’re backing the Falcons to have the common sense (a lot to ask, I know) to put their biggest weapon to work in a pretty big desperation spot for the team.
Falcons vs Packers combo
- Falcons +6.5
- Bijan Robinson 40+ receiving yards
- Bijan Robinson anytime TD
Falcons vs. Packers touchdown scorer: Tucker Kraft
Atlanta has already allowed three touchdowns to tight ends this season, making Tucker Kraft a sexy option to find the end zone. He’s one of Green Bay’s top playmakers on an offense short on talent, and Jayden Reed’s injury only increases the need to get him involved. Kraft scored six touchdowns in eight games last season, so the scoring ability is there. This matchup gives Jordan Love every reason to look his way.
Falcons vs Packers player prop: Bijan Robinson 40+ receiving yards
Bijan opened the season with eight catches for 90 yards before last week’s blowout cut his workload short. He averaged 53.7 receiving yards on 6.2 targets in Penix’s starts last season, reaching 40 yards in five of nine games. With Green Bay shutting down the run, short passes are an obvious way to get Atlanta’s best playmaker involved. An offense still searching for its first red-zone trip should probably try feeding the guy defenses actually fear.
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- Top picks: 2-0, +2.00 units
- Combos: 0-2, -2.00 units
Falcons vs Packers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Falcons +6.5 | Packers -6.5
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (50%) | Under 44.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Falcons 29% | Packers 71%
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Falcons vs Packers weather
Thursday night’s forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures around 60°F at kickoff, falling into the mid-50s as the game progresses.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Falcons vs Packers trend to know
Green Bay is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Packers.
How to watch Falcons vs Packers
| Location | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisc. |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Falcons vs Packers latest injuries
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