Twelve games are on the schedule across the majors today, and I've pinpointed my best MLB moneyline predictions as part of our MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 24.
MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 24
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Cardinalsvs  Pirates |
60% |
 White Soxvs  Royals |
55% |
 Marlinsvs  Cubs |
66% |
 Metsvs  Rangers |
55% |
 Diamondbacksvs  Rockies |
64% |
 Brewersvs  Phillies |
45% |
 Guardiansvs  Red Sox |
54% |
 Raysvs  Yankees |
59% |
 Redsvs  Braves |
68% |
 Astrosvs  Athletics |
61% |
 Angelsvs  Mariners |
67% |
 Padresvs  Dodgers |
62% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of Sept. 24.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for Sept. 24
Cardinals vs Pirates: Pirates
Pirates win probability: 60%
Neither Paul Skenes nor Kyle Leahy is throwing the baseball particularly well right now, but the Pirates have the offensive profile to punish the Cardinals right-hander. Pittsburgh owns a 122 wRC+ over the last week, while the Cardinals are ice cold, posting a 67 wRC+ in that same span.
Take Pittsburgh with confidence.
White Sox vs Royals: White Sox
White Sox win probability: 55%
The White Sox send rookie David Sandlin to the mound here, and although a 6.29 ERA through seven appearances isn't great, he's settled in lately. The right-hander sports a 1.54 FIP over his last two starts with no home runs allowed.
Randy Dobnak, meanwhile, has a 4.70 FIP in that same span and has surrendered seven earned runs in his previous two outings.
Sandlin's form gives Chicago the edge.
Marlins vs Cubs: Cubs
Cubs win probability: 66%
The Cubbies are a massive favorite for a reason.
Marlins starter Tyler Phillips has a 6.64 FIP while allowing a 10.5% barrel rate over the last two weeks. Chicago isn't scorching hot offensively, but they're in good enough form to punish a struggling arm.
Matthew Boyd also gives Chicago stability. The immediate numbers do not look fantastic, but the left-hander has a 2.96 FIP over his last five starts.
I'll back the Cubs with confidence.
Mets vs Rangers: Rangers
Rangers win probability: 55%
Kumar Rocker gives the Rangers a cleaner look tonight. He's found a rhythm lately, posting a 2.86 FIP over the last two weeks with zero home runs surrendered.
Zac Thornton's 4.56 FIP isn't horrible, but he's struggled on the road, and although Texas isn't raking at the moment, they're productive at home.
Take the hosts.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies: Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks win probability: 64%
Both Eduardo Rodriguez and Tanner Gordon are in poor form, but E-Rod is the more reliable arm overall, and the Diamondbacks are swinging the bats much better than Colorado.
They have a 102 wRC+ in the last week, while the Rockies sit at 61. I'll back Arizona in this NL West matchup.
Brewers vs Phillies: Brewers
Brewers win probability: 45%
This will be a bullpen game for the Brewers as Bryse Wilson takes the hill for one or two innings. Milwaukee's relief corps also owns a 2.75 FIP in the last week, which should be solid enough to contain Philadelphia.
The hosts, meanwhile, counter with Andrew Painter, who sports a FIP over 5.00 across his last three. The Brew Crew is swinging it well and will tack on some early runs against the Phillies rookie.
Guardians vs Red Sox: Red Sox
Red Sox win probability: 54%
Ranger Suarez is the main reason I'm backing Boston. The left-hander hasn't allowed more than one earned run in three straight starts, and he'll face a Guardians lineup that struggles to muster offense against lefties.
When southpaws are on the hill, Cleveland owns just a 91 wRC+, giving Suarez and the BoSox the edge.
Rays vs Yankees: Yankees
Yankees win probability: 59%
Cam Schlittler continues to shine for the Yankees, and he owns a stellar 2.30 FIP over the last month. He also hasn't allowed more than one earned run in eight consecutive appearances.
Schlittler gets to face the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays, but they've compiled a poor 61 wRC+ in the last seven days.
Reds vs Braves: Braves
Braves win probability: 68%
The odds are so steep here because Brady Singer is getting hit around the ballpark. He has a 16.17 xERA over his last two starts, allowing 11.05 BB/9 and 4.91 HR/9.
Tyler Mahle has been solid enough to back Atlanta, whose bats should be able to tee off on the struggling Singer.
Astros vs Athletics: Astros
Astros win probability: 61%
The Astros have a 126 wRC+ in their last six games, and this will be a bullpen game for the Athletics. While their relief corps has been decent lately, they've been far from untouchable, and they run into a hot offense.
Peter Lambert gives Houston stability, collecting a 2.74 FIP over the last two weeks with tremendous command.
The Astros are worth a look at 61%.
Angels vs Mariners: Mariners
Mariners win probability: 67%
Both Bryan Woo and Grayson Rodriguez are in good form, but Woo gives Seattle the advantage. He owns a 2.65 home FIP this season and has been very consistent lately.
While Rodriguez has shown improvements, he has a 4.34 road FIP, and the Mariners are a stronger offensive team at T-Mobile Park.
Padres vs Dodgers: Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 62%
This is a tough one to predict because neither Nick Pivetta nor Tyler Glasnow is at their best right now, and these lineups are scorching hot. But I'm siding with the Dodgers due to their 165 wRC+ and .236 ISO in the last week.
Pivetta has allowed a 40.5% hard-hit rate and an alarming 14.3% barrel rate in the last month, and that will spell trouble against Los Angeles.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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