The Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears square off at Soldier Field in Week 3.
The total has rightfully shifted from 48.5 to 50.5, and my Cowboys vs. Bears predictions aren't shying away from taking the Over.
Here are my best NFL picks for the spread and total for this Week 3 clash on Sunday, September 21.
Cowboys vs Bears prediction
Cowboys vs Bears Best bet: Over 50.5 (-105)
The Dallas Cowboys are fresh off a 40-37 shootout win against the Giants. They rolled up a whopping 478 yards of offense in that game but also gave up 506. Dallas was also headed towards a high-scoring showdown with Philly in Week 1 before an hour-long lightning delay iced the offenses for both teams.
The Chicago Bears' defense had a favorable matchup against a quarterback making his NFL debut in Week 1. They still collapsed in the fourth quarter, where they surrendered 183 yards and 21 points.
They were torched by the Lions last week, allowing 52 points and 8.8 yards per play. They'll have a tough time containing Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott who has the second-best passing grade (88.0) in the league per PFF.
Both stop units are missing key players. Chicago's top linebacker, T.J. Edwards, and its two best corners, Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, are sidelined with injuries.
Meanwhile, Dallas is still waiting for LB DeMarvion Overshown to recover from a knee injury, while Pro Bowl corner DaRon Bland will miss his second-straight game.
Cowboys vs Bears same-game parlay
The Cowboys sit 30th in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate, while the Bears are 31st. Those vulnerable pass defenses should get picked apart by capable aerial attacks.
Prescott threw for 361 yards last week and has thrown for more than 4,400 yards in three seasons in his career.
Not only is Chicago missing its top two CBs but key backup Jaylon Jones is also out with an injury. Lamb is a three-time All-Pro who has racked up 100 yards in back-to-back games and he should take advantage of those injuries at corner.
Rome Odunze reeled in seven of 11 targets for 128 yards and two scores last week. It was a breakout performance for the Top-10 pick in the 2024 draft, and he looks like Caleb Williams' No. 1 target moving forward.
Cowboys vs Bears SGP
- Over 50.5
- Dak Prescott Over 264.5 passing yards
- CeeDee Lamb Over 81.5 receiving yards
- Rome Odunze Over 61.5 receiving yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Williams Wows!
- Since we're backing both offenses to move the ball and for Odunze to have a productive game, it also makes sense to take the Over 236.5 passing yards for Williams.
- The Cowboys are 17th in the league in DVOA and I expect them to beat a Bears squad that is dead-last in DVOA and still looking for its first win of the year.
Cowboys vs Bears SGP
- Over 50.5
- Dak Prescott Over 264.5 passing yards
- CeeDee Lamb Over 81.5 receiving yards
- Rome Odunze Over 61.5 receiving yards
- Caleb Williams Over 236.5 passing yards
- Cowboys moneyline
Cowboys vs Bears game predictions
Cowboys vs Bears moneyline prediction
This line hit the board with the Bears as -120 favorites but has flipped to slightly favor the Cowboys at -124. That swing makes sense since the Bears are 0-2 while ranking last in the league in DVOA.
Cowboys vs Bears spread prediction
Since I'm expecting the Cowboys to win, I also like them to cover the short spread at -1.5. They had a close loss to the defending Super Bowl champions in Week 1 before winning last week.
Both teams have terrible defenses but the Cowboys have the edge on offense since Bears pivot Caleb Williams has been inconsistent and is 26th among all QBs in adjusted EPA/play.
Cowboys vs Bears Over/Under prediction
Both of these stop units have been horrible with the Bears 29th in the league in defensive EPA and the Cowboys 30th.
Dallas is seventh in offensive EPA while Chicago has talented playmakers like Odunze and D.J. Moore. That makes the Over 50.5 my favorite bet in this game.
Cowboys vs Bears odds
- Spread: Cowboys -1.5 | Bears +1.5
- Moneyline: Cowboys -124 | Bears +106
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-105) | Under 50.5 (-115)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Cowboys vs Bears trend to know
The Cowboys are 7-3 to the Over in their last 10 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Bears.
How to watch Cowboys vs Bears
| Location | Soldier Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Sunday, September 21, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Cowboys vs Bears latest injuries
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