Commanders vs Jets Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 16: Howell Continues to Stumble

Sunday’s meeting between the Washington Commanders and New York Jets at the Meadowlands will pit the league’s worst offense, the Jets — who sit as a 3-point favorite in NFL odds — vs. the league’s worst defense in the Commanders. 

With Sam Howell getting the nod to start, should bettors be looking to fade his passing total in a game where that the QB doesn’t play four quarters after Jacoby Brissett’s performance in Week 15?

I break down the Week 16 odds and offer my free NFL picks for Commanders vs. Jets on Sunday, December 24. 

Commanders vs Jets odds

Commanders vs Jets predictions

Following Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell’s 11-for-26 performance for 102 yards last week, hot-seated head coach Ron Rivera stated that the 23-year-old will remain the starter against the New York Jets.

The rookie QB has put together dreadful back-to-back starts, completing just 47% of his passes for 229 yards and two picks. He was benched in the fourth quarter last week for Jacoby Brissett, and the backup threw for 124 yards and two scores on just eight completions. Brissett had more yards in half a quarter than Howell had in over three.

With Rivera likely done in D.C. after the season, he has no reason to keep Howell in if he is struggling vs. a good Jets defense that still sits fifth on the season in success rate vs. the pass. If Howell continues to look bad, he will not see four quarters, making his Under 212.5 passing yards my best bet. 

Most of the time, books will be hesitant to put out a market in these cases, but bettors can take advantage in Week 16. The books have priced this in as his total was 260.5 last week as a giant underdog, but a poor first half could be lights out for Howell. 

The Commanders could also be dealing with a lead in this game which would decrease the overall Washington pass volume which is something that hasn’t happened during the five-game losing streak. A small chance of rain doesn’t help his cause either. 

My best bet: Sam Howell Under 216.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Commanders vs Jets same-game parlay

Sam Howell Under 216.5 passing yards

Breece Hall Over 46.5 rushing yards

Garrett Wilson Under 5.5 receptions

+475 at bet365

THE BLITZ is projecting a sub-200 passing game from the Washington QB, which could be generous if he plays like he has over the last two weeks. Possibly down two members of his starting O-line and his No.1 running back isn't helping the cause. 

Breece Hall could be busy with Siemian under center. The Commanders have been awful vs. the pass but their rush defense has also been below average. Hall could be a busy bee on Sunday, especially if New York is holding anything that resembles a lead. 

Garret Wilson is expected to have a big game thanks to the worst secondary in football, but his QB situation is ugly and six catches is a big number. THE BLITZ is projecting 4.03 for the New York WR. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Commanders vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis

This was New York -3 on the look-ahead and re-opened at the same number where it has been all week. Some books did hit the -3.5, but that was immediately bet down. 

The total has taken some Under money, though. It was as high as 40 on the look-ahead and Zach Wilson's concussion has helped move this to as low as 37 as of Thursday afternoon. 

Trevor Siemian is projected to start if Wilson can’t clear the protocol in time which has been more common now than earlier in the season. The backup came in last week and the duo combined for four turnovers and six sacks in the team’s worst offensive output of the season at 103 yards. 

So why are the Jets favored by a field goal? Well, the Commanders have dropped five straight games, could be benching their starter, allow the most points and yards per game, and could be without their starting running back in Brian Robinson as well as their starting left tackle and center. All three of those key pieces were DNP on Wednesday.

On the other hand, the Jets are getting healthier on the O-line and will return RT Carter Warren and RG Max Mitchell, both of whom missed last week's game. 

If Wilson is somehow cleared in time, there might be a buyback on the Over at 37. Siemian is 19-for-39 for 176 yards with two picks and four fumbles (two lost). He is a downgrade, which is saying something. 

If I could find a line on total QBs to play this game I’d take Over 2.5 at -200 or better and even sprinkle the Over 3.5 at good plus money. This game could shape up a lot of ways but the Washington offense is the best one to bet against, in my opinion. Their team total is currently u16.5. 

If Brissett does get into this game, the live Overs for his receivers might be something to look at, especially Terry McLaurin, who had completions of 29 yards, 16, and 48 with one score and one called back and put on the one-yard line.

Commanders vs Jets betting trend to know

The New York Jets have not hit the 1H moneyline in any of their last 10 games at home (-9.90 Units / -91% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Jets.

Commanders vs Jets game info

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