The San Jose Sharks have won just two of their past nine games, and both were one-goal victories against teams outside of the playoff picture. Things are looking bleak.
My Penguins vs. Sharks prediction sees the Pittsburgh Penguins coming through as 56% road favorites tonight.
Let's dive into NHL picks for Wednesday, Nov. 11.
TOP PICK
Penguins vs Sharks prediction: Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline
I like the Pittsburgh Penguins to 58%.
Things haven’t gone their way this season, but their process is competent despite the results. They have managed a 51.7 xGF% at 5-on-5 over the past month, good for 11th in the league.
Two things in particular have held them back: the power play and goaltending.
Luckily for them, neither should be as problematic against the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks are last in xG suppression on the kill this season and also last in shooting percentage.
This is a matchup where Pittsburgh should control the run of play at full strength, and San Jose doesn’t have the finishing or special teams to compensate.
COVERS INTEL: The Sharks rank 30th with a net expected goal differential of -1.1 per 60 minutes, meaning they're consistently being outplayed.
Penguins vs Sharks combo
I’m expecting Pittsburgh to control much of this game at 5-on-5 and win as a result.
Erik Karlsson has picked up a helper in 12 of 18 games thus far, including seven of eight against Bottom-12 defenses.
Rounding out the combo is Macklin Celebrini to record Over 3.5 shots. He has logged 23 minutes in five straight games and seven of eight as the Sharks search for answers.
Fun fact: Celebrini recorded at least four shots in 82% of games when playing 23+ minutes last season, and sits at 78% this year (seven of nine).
Penguins vs Sharks combo
- Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline
- Erik Karlsson Over 0.5 assists
- Macklin Celebrini Over 3.5 shots
Penguins vs Sharks player prop: Erik Karlsson Over 0.5 assists
Karlsson is playable for an assist to 57%.
The veteran defenseman is tied for first on Pittsburgh in points, and 15 of the 18 have come by way of an assist, five more than the closest teammate.
He leads the team in on-ice expected goals (26.93) while playing 60 more minutes than anyone else on the roster.
He’s not just playing a lot — he’s getting prime usage. No defenseman on the team has started a higher percentage of their shifts in the offensive zone.
Karlsson has assisted in seven of eight games against Bottom-12 defenses, and the Sharks are tied for 24th in goals against.
Penguins vs Sharks goal scorer: Rickard Rakell
Play to 39%.
Rickard Rakell started the season slowly, and yet he still ranks first on the Penguins in shots, unblocked attempts, and expected goals.
He is attached to the hip of Sidney Crosby at 5-on-5 and on the power play, and has played over 100 more minutes with Karlsson than any other defenseman.
He’s a nice correlation play with Karlsson to pick up an assist.
- Top picks: 22-28, -10.7 units
- Combos: 9-40, -8.24 units
Penguins vs Sharks odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Moneyline: Penguins 56% | Sharks 45%
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (56%) | Under 6.5 (45%)
- Spread: Penguins -1.5 (35%) | Sharks +1.5 (66%)
Check out the latest NHL odds before tonight's Penguins vs. Sharks matchup.
Penguins vs Sharks trend
San Jose has covered the puck line only in five of their last 20 home games (-15.4 units, 50% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends.
How to watch Penguins vs Sharks
| Location | SAP Center at San Jose |
| Date | Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SN+, ESPN+ |
Penguins vs Sharks latest injuries
Check out our NHL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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