My Warriors vs. Rockets prediction backs the game to finish Under the 221.5-point projected total.
The Warriors aim to extend their torrid winning streak to nine games against a Western Conference rival, the Houston Rockets. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at Toyota Center, with the Rockets listed as 6.5-point home favorites.
For more betting angles, check out our NBA picks for Wednesday, Nov. 11.
TOP PICK
Warriors vs Rockets prediction: Under 221.5
The Houston Rockets are surrendering the fourth-fewest points per home game (104.7), and Houston also ranks in the Top 10 in opponent effective possession ratio (0.955).
The Golden State Warriors have been a much better defensive team at home, but they're allowing just 102.0 pts per game in the last three and are surrendering the eighth-lowest opponent effective possession ratio when traveling (0.938).
I would play the Under down to 220.5 points.
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Warriors vs Rockets combo
The Rockets are surrendering the fourth-fewest points per home game (104.7), and Houston also ranks in the Top 10 in opponent effective possession ratio (0.955), as does Golden State when traveling (No. 8, 0.938).
Alperen Sengun is averaging 21.3 points per game for the season on 51.4% shooting, including a career-best 47.4% from 3-point range, while the Warriors are conceding 52.2% shooting on the road.
Then, Stephen Curry is averaging 4.7 made threes per game, but he's averaged 3.7 in his 3 road games thus far and put up 3.5 over two 2025-26 regular-season meetings with Houston.
Warriors vs Rockets combo
- Stephen Curry Under 4.5 threes
- Under 221.5
- Alperen Sengun Over 19.5 points
Warriors vs Rockets player props
Warriors player prop: Stephen Curry 35+ points + rebounds + assists
Curry is off to an incandescently hot start that includes an average of 30.6 points per contest on 50.3% shooting, including 45.7% from behind the arc.
He's contributing 8.4 rebounds + assists per contest as well, and he's come just a point, rebound, or assist short of going 5-1 to the Over on this prop in the last six contests.
Rockets player prop: Alperen Sengun 20+ points
Sengun is averaging 21.3 points per game for the season on 51.4% shooting, including a career-best 47.4% from 3-point range.
The elite efficiency dovetails well with the 52.2% shooting the Warriors allow on the road, and Sengun has cashed the Over on this prop in five occasions already this season, with four of those instances coming at home.
- Top picks: 6-3, +2.78 units
- Combos: 4-5, +10.78 units
- Props: 12-6, +4.46 units
Warriors vs Rockets odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Warriors +6.5 | Rockets -6.5
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Under 221.5
- Moneyline: Warriors 31% | Rockets 70%
Check the latest NBA odds for more on tonight's Warriors vs. Rockets matchup.
Warriors vs Rockets trend
A total of 11 of the last 14 regular-season and postseason games between the Warriors and Rockets have finished Under 221.5 points. Find more NBA betting trends.
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How to watch Warriors vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, Texas |
| Date | Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2026 |
| Tip off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Warriors vs Rockets latest injuries
Check out our NBA injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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