Buccaneers vs Panthers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 18: Tampa Still Has Something to Play For

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will try to punch their ticket to the playoffs on Sunday with a win against the Carolina Panthers. The Bucs control their destiny with a victory clinching the NFC South and they couldn't ask for a better opponent with the 2-14 Panthers having the worst record in the league entering Week 18.

NFL odds for this showdown opened with the Bucs as 5.5-point favorites before shortening to -4.5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for the Buccaneers vs. Panthers on Sunday, January 7.

Buccaneers vs Panthers odds

Buccaneers vs Panthers predictions

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers could have clinched the division title and a playoff berth with a win at home against the Saints last week. Instead, they lost 23-13 as slim favorites to snap a four-game winning streak. 

It's worth pointing out that the Bucs shot themselves in the foot with a -4 turnover differential in that game. However, they entered that contest with an NFL-best rate of +10 and I expect a cleaner game against a Carolina Panthers side that ranks 32nd in the NFL in takeaways. 

That's not the only area where the Panthers are dead-last with Carolina also at the bottom of the league with a 2-14 record and an average scoring margin of -10.7 points per game. It briefly looked like the Panthers had turned the corner by beating the Falcons in Week 15 and almost upsetting the Packers in Week 16, but they came crashing back to earth in a 26-0 loss to the Jaguars last week.

Looking deeper into those contests, though, it's clear that this is still an awful team on both sides of the ball. While they beat Atlanta, they scored just nine points in one of the nastiest weather games of the season and needed a pair of late touchdowns and a career game from quarterback Bryce Young to make things interesting against Green Bay. 

Young reverted to his usual awful play last week, completing 19 of 32 passes for just 112 yards against a struggling Jacksonville defense. The Panthers also surrendered 26 points and 317 yards to a Jags offense that was missing its franchise QB and two starting wide receivers.

With the Panthers getting hammered by C.J. Beathard & Co. last week, I have a tough time seeing them elevating their play for a meaningless regular-season finale. Especially against a Bucs side that should be extremely motivated coming off a loss and with the playoffs in their sights.

Although Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield missed practice on Wednesday due to sore ribs, it seems like he'll tough it out in a game of this magnitude. On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay's weak secondary won't be tested by a Carolina offense that averages just 167.1 passing yards per game. Lay the points with the visitors. 

My best bet: Buccaneers -4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Buccaneers vs Panthers same-game parlay

Buccaneers -4.5

Mike Evans Over 61.5 receiving yards

Rachaad White Over 18.5 rush attempts

+425 at bet365

Mike Evans was just named to his fifth Pro Bowl and has racked up 1,233 receiving yards this season. He's coming off a 70-yard performance against the Saints and seven catches for 86 yards in the previous week versus the Jaguars. 

Perhaps most importantly, Evans torched the Panthers for 162 yards when he faced them last month. To say that Evans has Carolina's number would be an understatement. He went off for 207 yards against the Panthers last year and has posted 75+ receiving yards in seven straight games against these divisional foes. 

Rachaad White was held to 42 yards on 11 carries last week but he had at least 20 rush attempts in six of his previous eight games — including Week 12 against the Panthers when he carried the rock 20 times for 84 yards.

It's no coincidence that in the three contests during that span where White had fewer than 20 carries, the Bucs lost. It stands to reason that if the Bucs play with a lead in this game, they'll lean on White against a Panthers side that ranks last in the league in defensive rush EPA.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Buccaneers vs Panthers spread and Over/Under analysis

The line hit the board with the Bucs installed as 5.5-point road favorites with the O/U at 37.5. Early money came in on the Panthers, slimming the spread to -4.5 but the total has remained unchanged as of Thursday morning. 

Before losing to the Saints last week, the Bucs had gone 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in their previous four games. That said, the lone contest during that span where they failed to cover came against the Panthers in Week 13. Tampa Bay led for the entire game but a fourth-quarter touchdown from Chuba Hubbard allowed the Panthers to get within a field goal. 

Buccaneers vs Panthers betting trend to know

The Bucs have gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games while the Panthers have the league's worst ATS mark this season at 4-10-2. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Panthers.

Buccaneers vs Panthers game info

Buccaneers vs Panthers latest injuries

Buccaneers vs Panthers weather

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