NFL Week 1 wraps up under the lights at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos in an AFC West showdown on Monday Night Football.
We've collected all of the NFL picks from our top experts to highlight the best Broncos vs. Chiefs plays.
The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday, Sept. 14, on ESPN/ABC.
Broncos vs Chiefs predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Broncos moneyline |
45% |
| Broncos +2.5 |
51% |
/ Under 43.5 |
52% |
| Kenneth Walker III 60+ rushing yards |
54% |
| Courtland Sutton 40+ receiving yards |
55% |
| Xavier Worthy anytime TD |
23% |
Probabilities courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Broncos vs Chiefs?
The Denver Broncos are slight underdogs tonight, but Covers betting analyst Trevor Knapp is backing them to pull off the upset in his NFL Week 1 moneyline picks.
Our prediction: Broncos to win — Yes (45%)
"Eric Bieniemy will likely take a conservative approach, leaning heavily on Kenneth Walker III and the Chiefs’ ground game as Patrick Mahomes works his way back into form.
The problem? Denver’s defense was one of the best in football against the run last season, ranking second overall while allowing just 91.1 rushing yards per game and 3.87 yards per carry.
On the other side, Denver’s offense has added another explosive weapon in Jaylen Waddle, giving Bo Nix a true WR1 and Sean Payton another weapon to scheme with."
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Broncos vs Chiefs spread prediction
Our prediction: Chiefs -2.5 — No (51%)
Josh Inglis made Denver +2.5 his primary Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction, while Chris Vasile independently backed the same side in his NFL Week 1 picks against the spread. Inglis had this to say:
"I know both quarterbacks are coming back from injuries, but Patrick Mahomes' ligaments worry me, and worry me even more when his backside protection is going to be a second-string undrafted rookie facing off vs. Nik Bonitto and this pass rush.
The Kansas City Chiefs have concerns on the other side of the ball, too. This secondary lost 75% of its starters and a few more depth pieces. It's a brand-new group that might take time to execute the system."
Broncos vs Chiefs total prediction
Market lean: Over 43.5 — No (52%)
NFL analyst Joe Osborne isn't expecting many points tonight in MNF.
"Six straight Broncos vs. Chiefs meetings have gone Under, averaging just 33.7 combined points, with five of the games failing to reach 40.
The rosters have changed, but this opener offers fresh reasons to expect another defensive battle. Mahomes and Nix are each returning from major injuries and face defenses that ranked in the top five in points allowed last season. That’s a tough spot for either offense to come out firing."
More Broncos vs Chiefs picks from Covers
- Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions
- Broncos vs. Chiefs prop picks
- Broncos vs Chiefs anytime touchdown picks
Broncos vs Chiefs player props
Rushing prop: Kenneth Walker III 60+ rushing yards — Yes (54%)
Jason Logan expects Kansas City to give Walker plenty of work while Mahomes settles back into game action.
"Walker looked strong in the summer and will get a ton of touches as Patrick Mahomes works off the rust. New/old offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy wants to establish the ground game early to set up misdirection and power play-action passes.
On top of that, the Denver Broncos bring one of the best pass rushes after Mahomes, and two buckets of Walker will help cool down the heat, especially with the KC O-line hurting."
Receiving prop: Courtland Sutton 40+ receiving yards — Yes (55%)
JLo is also targeting a Broncos' receiver:
"Last season, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yard totals usually sat north of 50 yards, with peaks to 60.5 O/U. With Waddle on the field, oddsmakers have hacked those numbers to 40 yards.
He’s dealt with double coverage as the Broncos’ top target the past couple seasons and is now getting softer members of the rival secondary across from him.
Sutton is always a threat to pop off for a big play (ninth among WRs in 20+ receptions in 2025), and Broncos offensive coordinator Davis Webb is now calling plays, looking to push the ball beyond the sticks."
Check out Logan's full Broncos vs. Chiefs player props for his complete breakdown.
Chiefs anytime touchdown prop: Xavier Worthy — Yes 23%)
Inglis is also on the TD beat for Broncos vs. Chiefs, and his eyes are on Worthy:
"The fair probability, per Covers' prop projections, is around 27%, leaving a lot of room for the second-best +EV TD on the board.
Xavier Worthy will likely see most of his time in the slot and on shorter routes, which might be to his advantage. The injury to the Chiefs' starting left tackle, coupled with Patrick Mahomes' mobility, could hurt Kansas City's chances of throwing longer-developing routes.
THE BLITZ also projects the Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team in the red zone, adjusted for context, at a 66% RZ pass rate. This game also projects to have the second-most total plays at 130.4 in Week 1."
For more touchdown angles, check out our full Broncos vs. Chiefs anytime touchdown picks.
Broncos vs Chiefs live markets explained
Kalshi event contracts can be bought and sold as the Broncos vs. Chiefs unfolds, meaning traders aren't necessarily locked into their original pregame position.
The probabilities will move throughout the game as the score, time remaining, possession, and game state change.
How do Broncos vs Chiefs prediction markets work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where users trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, users trade event contracts based on simple Yes/No questions such as "Will the Broncos beat the Chiefs?"
Contract prices reflect the market's estimated probability of an outcome. A contract trading at 23%, for example, indicates that the market is assigning that outcome roughly a 23% chance of occurring. If the prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1; if it is incorrect, it settles at $0.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
At a traditional sportsbook, bettors wager against prices established by the bookmaker. Kalshi instead operates as an exchange, with users trading event contracts against other market participants.
Another major difference is the ability to exit a position before an event is finished. If the probability of your Broncos vs. Chiefs position increases during the game, you can sell the contract rather than waiting for the final result.
Why trade Broncos vs Chiefs at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers several features that distinguish prediction markets from traditional pro football betting:
- Live flexibility: Contracts can be bought and sold as market probabilities change throughout the game.
- Probability-based pricing: Markets display the estimated likelihood of an outcome rather than traditional American odds.
- Transparency: Prices are driven by trading activity between market participants.
- Federal regulation: Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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