The Detroit Lions host the Chicago Bears in Week 11 odds of NFL action on Sunday. The Lions are atop the NFC North with a 7-2 record while the Bears remain at the bottom at 3-7, but Chicago did get some good news this week when it was announced that quarterback Justin Fields would return to the lineup.
NFL odds have the Lions as 8-point favorites with the Over/Under listed at 48.5 for this showdown between division rivals. Here are my best free NFL picks for Bears vs. Lions on November 19.
Bears vs Lions odds
Bears vs Lions predictions
The Detroit Lions are rolling but I'm not sold on their defense, especially after giving up 38 points last Sunday for the second time in their last three games. They are 12th in the league in defensive EPA but just 20th in success rate, and they've benefited from playing against plenty of pathetic offenses.
The Lions have faced just four competent quarterbacks so far this season, and three of them shredded Detroit's defense while Patrick Mahomes was held in check thanks to multiple drops from his receivers.
While the jury is still out on whether or not Justin Fields is a competent QB, he's still a significant upgrade over Tyson Bagent, who had been starting for the Chicago Bears while Fields recovered from a thumb injury.
Fields did manage two consecutive impressive starts before his injury in Week 6, and the Lions struggle to defense against mobile quarterbacks.
While I think the Bears offense will show improvement with Fields, the Lions should also put up a ton of points. Jared Goff has the second-best passing grade in the league according to Pro Football Focus, and he's at his best when playing at home and kept clean in the pocket. That shouldn't be an issue here since the Lions do a great job in pass protection and Chicago ranks just 31st in pressure rate.
The Lions are also at full strength on offense after running back David Montgomery and interior linemen Jonah Jackson and Frank Ragnow returned to the field last week. With a fully healthy offense, the Lions dropped 41 points on the Chargers last week, and they should have no problem moving the ball against a Bears D that ranks 27th in defensive EPA.
Take the Over here.
My best bet: Over 47.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Bears vs Lions same-game parlay
Over 47.5
Justin Fields Over 48.5 rushing yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 84.5 receiving yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown is easily Goff's favorite target, and he has eclipsed the 100-yard mark in six of his last seven games while coming off a career-high 156 receiving yards last week. He should go off against a Bears defense that ranks 31st in dropback EPA and gives up 298.2 passing yards per game on the road.
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Bears vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Lions at -10.5, but after it was announced that Fields would start, the spread has slimmed to as low as -7.5. Meanwhile, the total opened at 46.5 and has ticked up to 48.5.
The Lions are coming off a 41-38 road victory against the Chargers and have gone 6-1 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games.
The Bears should be well rested after edging the Panthers 16-13 in an ugly Thursday Night matchup in Week 10. Their offense has been limited since Bagent took over at QB midway through their Week 6 tilt with the Vikings and they are hoping that Fields can be more consistent.
The Bears looked like the worst team in the league at the start of the year but have gone 3-3 SU and 3-2-1 ATS in their last six games.
Bears vs Lions betting trend to know
The Lions have gone 9-5 to the Over in their last 14 games at home. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Lions.
Bears vs Lions game info
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, November 19, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Lions -10.5, 46.5 |
Bears vs Lions latest injuries
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