A massive non-conference clash on Monday Night Football pits the NFL's No. 1 offense against its No. 1 defense, and my Bills vs. Vikings prop picks for MNF on Nov. 9 target the biggest edges.
Buffalo and Minnesota wrap up Week 9, presenting interesting edges for my favorite NFL picks.
Best Bills vs Vikings props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 D.J. Moore 50+ receiving yards |
49% |
 Jordan Addison 40+ receiving yards |
52% |
| Josh Allen 30+ rushing yards |
53% |
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Prop pick #1: D.J. Moore 50+ receiving yards
Buffalo Bills wide receiver D.J. Moore made his return to the lineup in a big way last week.
Moore hauled in four catches on seven targets for 82 yards — 49 of which came from one play. He took part in just 66% of snaps in the blowout win over the Ravens, with Buffalo passing on only 46% of its offensive plays.
Week 9's trip to Minnesota is expected to be a tight game against one of the top defenses in the land, which is why we're seeing Moore's receiving yard total drop 10 yards from its closing spot in Week 8.
However, Monday presents a rare edge for Moore with this trip to U.S. Bank Stadium being just the second time Moore has played indoors this season. The last indoor outing was Week 1, with Moore catching five of eight passes his way for 100 yards in his Buffalo debut at Houston.
Throughout his career, Moore has thrived inside with his average yards per reception at 14.75 in climate-controlled conditions against just 13.2 outdoors. He's also scored a touchdown in 42% of his indoor games compared to a 28% TD rate outside.
Moore's Week 9 forecasts range between 42 yards and a ceiling of 64.5, with most models at 50+ receiving yards. My number comes out at 55 yards from Moore on MNF.
Prop pick #2: Jordan Addison 40+ receiving yards
When a backup QB steps in under center, we usually see the prop totals for his receivers plummet. That's not the case with the Minnesota Vikings and Jordan Addison.
Carson Wentz will start in Week 9, and Addison's receiving yards total actually ticked up, from as low as 35.5 O/U to a high of 41.5 O/U. That says a little something about this offense under Kyler Murray.
Addison is a home run threat for Minnesota, topping the team in air yards and receptions of 30+ yards (three) entering Week 9. The Buffalo secondary has been busted for big plays, giving up the sixth-most explosive passes (27) and seventh-most air yards to foes.
Addison drew five targets for just two catches and 21 yards in Wentz's first full start in Week 2, but going back to last season, Addison had a total of 30 targets for 21 catches in Wentz's four starts, averaging 77.25 yards per game on 14.7 yards per reception.
Most projections are north of 40 yards, with a ceiling at 54. My number settles just shy of 47 receiving yards for Addison.
Prop pick #3: Josh Allen 30+ rushing yards
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is a one-man playbook when things break down. And with the Vikings' blitz frothing at the mouth on Monday, expect that pressure to push Allen into Plan B on several snaps.
He's among the top-rated QBs using the run against blitzing defenses at PFF and has 19 scrambles for 204 rushing yards heading into Week 9.
There are also injury concerns on the left side of the Bills' offensive line heading into MNF, with Alec Anderson and Dion Dawkins listed as questionable.
Player forecasts have Allen's rushing output between 29 and 39.5 yards, with the majority of projections north of 30 yards. My number sits at 35 yards on the ground from Allen versus the Vikings.
- Prop picks: 30-21, +7.64 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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